Saturday, July 23, 2011

Stats vs. Aesthetics: How do you watch a game?


Baseball-reference.com is an incredible site for baseball junkies like myself. It has every stat of every player who has ever played the game for any stretch of time, including minor leaguers. Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus have similar type-sites that list all sorts of advanced metrics. Every time you visit one of these sites there seems to be a new number to describe a player. It’s great. Gone are the days when the best ways to evaluate a player were with batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. They only tell a small part of the story on a player. Better stats are out there that I have come to embrace as being a greater indicator of a player’s value, on-base percentage, on-base-plus slugging (OPS), OPS +, and WAR are all great indicators of a players value to their team. They aren’t perfect but they are helpful to those of us who like to compare players of today with players from the past.

There are a plethora of other stats that help to complete the picture, as statisticians and baseball talent evaluators continue to look at ways in which to determine player value. Defensive metrics seem to be flawed to a degree and require a large sampling over time. With defense it helps to actually watch the games. Which brings me to the essential point of this post. Baseball has always been a statistically driven game because of its nature as a largely, individualized team sport, if that makes sense. A baseball player’s stats at the end of the year are largely a reflection of their own individual contribution to its team, with the notable exception of RBI’s, but even that has an individualized component. You can look at a player’s numbers at the end of the year and determine, for the most part, how their season turned out. But, you still need to watch the game to appreciate the value of a player. Stats can show that you had a lot of assists from the outfield. But does that mean you have an accurate arm, an accurate and strong arm? Or do teams test you because they haven’t seen you enough? Stats cannot show how smooth a player looks when he turns the double play or how he glides to cover balls in the outfield. It does not tell you how sharp a guy’s curveball is, or how filthy that sinker that he throws. You have to watch the game to truly appreciate what each player brings to the field and how they contribute to the teams’ success. Sometimes I fall into the trap of just looking at what certain numbers say and not the aesthetic things.

There are just so many stats out there and you don’t get to see every player, so if you are into comparing players on different teams, sometimes stats are the best way to go. When it comes to players who played long before I was born, stats are the only way to go cause obviously I never got to see them play. This is where the stories from players who played the game back then are so important to help quantify how good some of the players of the past were. Stories from relatives and old family friends are a key ingredient to baseball’s past, sharing stories of a time where baseball was the America’s past time. One day I hope to be able to share stories of how good players such as Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, or Derek Jeter to future generations who never got to see them play. Numbers cannot show you how sweet the swing of Adrian Gonzalez is, or the opposite field power that Ryan Howard shows. It doesn’t tell you how Ichiro can throw a guy out at 3rd from the warning track in right field. Stats don’t tell you how good the 2-seam fastball of Greg Maddux was or how intimidating Randy Johnson was out on the mound. J.D. Drew is a classic example of a guy who has good peripheral numbers, solid OPS, decent batting average, but he’s just missing the “it” factor.

When I first listen to a song, I am not trying to break down the lyrics and find out what the meaning of the song is. I am listening to the rhythm and the beats and then I check the lyrics afterwards if I am still interested. I don’t try and do both. This concept applies to my sports viewing where sometimes I consume stats too much and don’t appreciate the feel and the pure athletic beauty that the game provides to us. I have found the most enjoyment when I forego the statistical approach and just watch for the sake of watching. Watch for that beauty because stats don’t say at all. 

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