Thursday, February 24, 2011

Its About That Time

So it has occurred to me that I promised some baseball talk a week or two back and I have failed to live up to that promise. If you are a current resident of the south than you know all too well the spring-like weather that we have had recently. This type of weather (mid 70's) cannot help but remind me of being at the ballpark. It just smells of baseball right now. I have been slowly digesting and gathering information for the upcoming season. Reading up on relevant articles and looking through the lineups and pitching rotations of all the teams trying to figure out who is going to do what for 2011. Trying to figure out who the breakout players are going to be, who the top players at each position are and who has a chance to put his name on the map. Trying to figure out which players are on the declines of their career and can no longer be regarded in the same light that they did not such a long time ago. These are the things I think about daily. With advanced metrics becoming even more a part of the overall analysis, well that just adds another wrinkle of how to accurately look at a player. I cannot watch every game so I have to rely on stats to do some of the work for me. Things such as WAR, OPS +, ERA +, have new and significant meaning to me as these are excellent tools for evaluation of players. RBI's while important do not hold the same relevance to me as they once did. You may be a great run producer, but if no one is on base in front of you than you will not have as much an opportunity to drive in those runs as someone on a better team does. I am also aware of the dynamic of paralysis by analysis. Sometimes you have to see a player in person or on TV to appreciate his value.

2010 was the year of the pitcher, with numerous no-hitters (6 total) and 2 perfect games thrown. It also was the year of the young pitcher. Felix Hernandez, currently 24 years old, won the Cy Young last year and deservingly so I think. He, and Zach Grienke before him, represent a changing of the guard in terms of young pitchers and because they won the award on very bad teams with low win totals. Hernandez won 13 games last year, a few years ago he probably would not have sniffed the top 5 of the list. However, he was so dominant in the other areas that the voters realized this and did not hold it against him that he pitched on a team that scored so few runs. He had an ERA of 2.27 and had 13 wins, that is a nearly impossible feat. Some other young pitchers that I am looking towards establishing themselves as household names are guys like David Price, last year was his breakout year-this year I look for him to continue on that trend of true eliteness. Josh Johnson of the Marlins, second in the majors in ERA, had to be shut down the last few weeks of the season last year, but I expect this hoss to lead a potential playoff sleeper this season. Other guys would be Tommy Hanson of the Braves, who at 24 has shown the moxie to become an ace of the staff in the not to distant future. Ubaldo Jimenez has the stuff to dominate, I think he can continue to do that as he looks to establish more consistency from start to finish this season. The Giants studs of Lincecum (who is already a household name), Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner are expected to keep the Giants in the title hunt for the foreseeable future. Their Bay Area counterparts, the Oakland Athletics, have some young studs worth keeping an eye this season, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, just to name two. Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, two young lefties who are starting to emerge as top of the rotation guys. The Reds Johnny Cueto and any of the guys that Tampa Bay puts behind Price are candidates to emerge this season.

I am sure there are plenty of names that I forgot, but the point is is that I think pitching is here to stay to dominate over these next few years, and that is a good thing to me. I love watching well pitched games that last around 2 hours. As much as like baseball, I do not want to have to consistently sit through 3.5 hour games filled with guys who cannot throw it over the plate. There is just something about a well pitched game that gets my juices flowing. I grew up in Atlanta during their reign of division titles so I appreciate the value that good pitching provides. My hometown team the Braves have gotten back to that way of operation. They have a solid four of Hanson, Tim Hudson, Derrick Lowe, and Jair Jurrjens to lead the way in 2011, but there are several potential young studs on the near horizon. Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlan (when he comes back from Tommy John, he was one of the top guys for the Bravos before he went down), plus guys who have not yet made it to the show, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino. I like what I hear about these guys and look forward to seeing how it all will shake out over the next year or two. So that is one of the many things that I am looking forward to this season.

To steal a line from Mr. Fogerty:
I am born again there is new grass on the field.

Let's play ball!

MB

P.S.-too early to make any predictions for the season, have to see if any signifanct players get injured, etc. (i. e. Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals)

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Top 10 NBA Players for 2010-2011

I have not posted in awhile, been pre-occupied with various things such as school, my Dad's 50th birthday party, and school some more. In light of the recent Carmelo Anthony trade to the Knicks (finally we can get on to focusing in on the stretch run towards the postseason), I have decided to formulate another list of rankings, which I love doing because of the debate that it creates. I am not going to do a breakdown of the trade, you can read that most anywhere else today. My brief take is that any time you can acquire a top level player you have to do it. The supplemental parts can be filled in time and this sets the Knicks up better in the long-term not as much this year. My list will be of the top 10 current players in the NBA today. I will be looking at factors such as postseason success, winning, regular season success,  and how much value they add to their teams. Recent success will also be heavily considered as well.

So without further ado, my top 10 NBA players for the 2010-2011 season.

1. Kobe Bryant (age 32)- L.A. Lakers
Comments: 15 year in the league, still among the top scorers in the league. Has 5 championships, including the last 2. He still prone to selfishness but his teams are usually on top at the end. Phil Jackson gets a lot of credit for his molding of Kobe, much like he did with Jordan. He has logged a lot of minutes over his career including some deep playoff runs so we will see how his body holds up over these next few years.

2. Dwayne Wade (29)- Miami Heat
He gets the edge over his teammate because of his postseason success and because he got LeBron to come to him, not the other way around. He may have peaked statistically a couple of seasons ago, but still puts up around 25 ppg. He is a 7 time All-Star and has a Finals MVP on his resume where he was spectacular. He is such a tenacious player on offense, who is best skill is driving towards the basket and making those difficult shots, which leaves him vulnerable to injury. With LBJ now in town this should only help Wade as it lessens the offensive burden on him. Only flaw is his penchant for shooting too many 3's of which he shoots a low percentage (below 30%), other than that he is a really good player.

3. LeBron James (26)-Miami Heat
The best athlete this league has ever seen. 6-8 270 lbs and has the speed and power combination that is just not seen in this world. He is also the best regular season player on this list which should count for something. Appeared in 1 NBA Finals and lost to the Spurs. He should really just drive every time he gets the ball and not worry about shooting so many outside jumpers. If he wanted to commit to sitting down in the low block then he could really complete his game. He has gotten better on the defensive side of the ball and can lock down elite players on the wings. He is such an intriguing figure. It will be interesting to see how his career evolves with Wade in Miami. Can he be the man? Or will it be LeBron for 3 quarters and Wade taking over in the 4th quarter. We'll see. It will be exciting to watch.

4. Kevin Durant  (22)-Oklahoma City Thunder
A pure scorer. An elastic man version of Tracy McGrady only better. He has limited playoff experience, only 1-7game series against the Lakers. Figure on his team continuing to progress through the rounds in the playoffs with the emergence of Russell Westbrook as a more than capable sidekick. The leading scorer in the league the last 2 seasons. He is a great teammate who is teammates seem to get along well with each other which helps fuel their winning ways. He is a guy who you want to pull for because of all the things he represents. Not flashy, humble, and hungry for wins.

5. Dwight Howard (25)- Orlando Magic
Reigning two time Defensive P.O.Y. 5 time All-Star, his teams win a lot of games. He has made 1 appearance in the Finals and another appearance in the conference finals. His teams have won over 50 games the past 3 seasons and are on pace to do so this season. He covers up for his team's defensive mistakes. He is averaging a career high in ppg this season at 22.8 and he continues to be a force on the boards averaging nearly 14 a game for the past 4 seasons. He is a liability down the stretch in games because of his poor FT shooting.

6. Carmelo Anthony (26)-New York Knicks
A pure, elite scorer who comes by his points pretty easily. A four-time All Star his teams have appeared in the playoffs every single season that he has been in the league, but have only advanced past the first round once. He should do well in D'Antoni's system in NY.

7. Deron Williams (26)-Utah Jazz
He tentatively holds the title of the best all around PG in a league that is full of quality ones. He is averaging a career high in ppg at 21.3 and is averaging right around 10 dimes a game. He is a decent outside shooter at 35% a game on 3's. His teams have been in the playoffs the last 4 seasons and all but 1 saw his team advance past the first round. A lot of credit should go to Jerry Sloan for the success of this team and I do not like how that situation ended with Sloan resigning a couple of weeks ago but with that being said, this is a dynamic PG and the tops in the league for now.

8. Dirk Nowitzki (32)-Dallas Mavericks
He just keeps plugging along in now his 13th season in the league. His teams always win and as a model of consistency he has averaged between 21.8 and 26.6 ppg every year since the 2000-2001 season. Prior to this season and excluding his rookie season the most games he had missed in a season was 6. He is a 38% career 3 point shooter. He won a MVP and has appeared in 10 All Star games. From 2000 on the fewest games his team has won in a season is 50.  Again consistent excellence here. Probably would be best served as an elite number 2 option on a team, not quite an elite player but pretty damned close.

9. Derrick Rose (22)-Chicago Bulls
He has made the jump this season and is a strong candidate for MVP this season. He has gotten better every season that he has been in the league. He has worked diligently to improve his outside shooting, jumping all the way up to 35% on 3pt shots from 26 and 22% shooting his first 2 seasons in the league. Thus his ppg is at a career high of 24.9 a game, up 4 a game from last season. He has led a banged up team this year to the 3rd best record in the East. He has been dynamite in his brief playoff experiences.

10. Chris Paul (25)- New Orleans Hornets
A floor general. Some say very similar to Isaiah Thomas. Has led the league in assists and steals twice. Leads the league in steals this season. He can really shoot. 47.3% for his career, including 36.4% from 3.  His last 2 seasons he has shot over 40% from 3. He makes his teammates better which is why he ranks where he does on this list. His health, especially his knees are a big concern going forward. How will he hold up? When he plays his teams win. When he does not play, they do not win. That to me is value.

Honorable Mentions- Pau Gasol, Amare Stoudimire, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook

Feel free to disagree, I am sure you do.

MB

Monday, February 14, 2011

A New Passion?

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Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Football Jadedness

First things first, it was a good game on Sunday, not great but good. It was competitive, but filled with flaws. Most noticeably the 3 turnovers by Pittsburgh and the dropped passes by the Packers receivers. The Packers deserved to win, they played better, they made minimal mistakes, and rode a hot streak towards the end of the season (more on this in a minute). If Roethlisberger had been able to connect with Mike Wallace on that deep pass that he overthrew than we may be singing a different tune.

The highlight for me (or the low light if you want to call it that and I think most people would say that it was) was the dreadful halftime performance by the Black Eyed Peas. Visually it looked pretty cool, the neon dancers on the field, the bands outfits were kind of cool looking but that was about it. They lacked energy to me and it looked like they were trying to do too much. The dancing with the singing did not work for me. Half of the songs they did were not even theirs. The dance Usher did was pretty cool as was Slash on the guitar, but Fergie's singing to "November Rain" was just horrendus. I understand what the NFL was trying to do trying to appeal to a younger audience, but to me the classic rock genre of music worked and they put on great shows. The Who, Bruce Springsteen, and Tom Petty were good enough in my mind. There is a way to make this work so that it is interesting and entertaining. The Black Eyed Peas are solid on the CD's in the studio but their live performance was lacking. I think it reflects upon the poor choices available with modern popular music. The "underground" stuff that I listen to is fantastic but not a lot of people know who these bands are even if they would put on a great show. It seems that when pop music is at its worst is when the "other" stuff is really rocking and rolling. Just my two cents on that whole thing. 

I do not know about some of you but I am ready for football to be done with for awhile. I referenced this in an earlier blog about my longing for baseball season to arrive (pitchers and catchers are one week away). Football is not favorite sport, it is a close second to baseball for me (which I know is rare in today's 21st century of fast-paced, non-stop, constant movement of the world). One of the growing problems I have with football, primarily the NFL, is Roger Goodell. I wish more people in the media would call him out on this 18 game schedule crap. He says that this is what the fans want. I think he misconstrued the answers he receives from the fans. Fans do not want to pay full price for exhibition games as a part of purchasing season tickets. So Goodell assumes they do not want to pay for the exhibition games so let us just add two more regular season games. Yeah that makes sense. I really do not think there are enough injuries in pro football, the game is not violent enough, yeah lets add two games because we are not making enough money. For the uninitiated that is sarcasm to its highest degree. Did he watch the Super Bowl? Charles Woodson knocked out of the game, Sam Shields injured, Emmanuel Sanders injured. Let us add two more games because that will definitely enhance the product on the field. Come on man! How stupid does he think the fans are? All of this non-sense about how much they care about the players' health, the emphasis on concussions, blah, blah, blah, blah. Cut the crap! We have reached a saturation point with the level of play and how many games can be played with the level of the athletes that we have in today's game. If the owner's are looking for more revenue than maybe you can drop the exhibition games and add some playoff teams (I disapprove of adding more playoff teams, more on this in a minute).

Twelve playoff teams is the maximum amount that I could stand. Let me preface this next set of sentences with this, I have nothing against the Green Bay Packers, but they were a 6 seed that got hot the last few weeks of the season. They barely beat Chicago the last week of the season to get in. They were 10-6, which is a real solid record. They were a good team, should have had a better record than 10-6. I just do not like how it turns out that basically the regular season prior to December does not really matter that much. As long you stay around .500 you have a shot if you can get hot at the end. Arizona a couple of years ago. They were 9-7. I repeat they were 9-7. Is that worthy of an appearance in a championship game? Kurt Warner and that offense got hot at the right time and made it to the Super Bowl. Taking it back a little further the first championship for Roethlisberger. They were a 6th seed. What I am getting at, is no more playoff teams. The NFL is turning into the NBA where the regular season has minimal significance. They have 16 playoff spots for 30 teams. Lets just give everybody a trophy so no one's feelings get hurt. My generation of kids grew up with everyone getting trophies. We are spoiled because of acts like this and a lot of us are soft. When people in support of these big playoffs for college football starting running their mouth. All I can do is scream at the top of my lungs, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! College football has the most meaningful regular season, so do not change it. Why should the 8th best team or the 16th best team have a shot at the championship. It is not right for those at the top who have earned it by playing well in the regular season. Ideally college football could determine the course of championship on a year to year basis. If there are two dominant teams that are undefeated, we do not need a playoff. If there are 4 deserving teams than we can have a plus one system.

Sorry for the rambling, had to get all of that off my chest.

MB

P.S.- New updated QB rankings
1. Brady
2. Manning (by default, BR wins he is here)
3. Rodgers (resume incomplete, another great season and he is at 2, outplayed BR)
4. Roethlisberger (post-season clutchness way overrated upon further review)
5. Brees (could rise again with less int's next season)

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Legends and Leaders; Impact of the Super Bowl on All-Time Greatness

In browsing through online media coverage of this year's Super Bowl, I stumbled along something that caught my eye. Those that know me pretty well, know my fondness for creating lists and rankings things. On ESPN's site they had one of these Sports Nations polls where you could vote upon who you thought were the best Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks of all-time. Sign me up for that one. Well of course I spent the next 90 minutes researching about the QB's with whom's statistics I was unfamiliar with. Names such as Bart Star, Len Dawson, Joe Namath, Terry Bradshaw, and Bob Griese, just to name a few. What really struck my eye was the low percentage that some of these guys completed passes at and how some QB's had even thrown more interceptions in their career than TD's and yet were first ballot Hall of Famer's and multiple Super Bowl winners.

Some particular names that were interesting to look at were Bradshaw (51.9% completions, 212 TD's-210 Int. for the career) and yet he won 4 Super Bowls and was a first ballot Hall of Famer. Another interesting name of note whose statistics did not match up to the legendary status to which he is revered is Joe Namath (50.1%, 173 TD's-220 Int.), but got into the H.O.F. on his 3rd try. There were others who had "poor" stats but managed to win Super Bowls and eventually get elected to the Hall of Fame. These kind of things make sports fun and so intriguing. What is it that these guys do to put up crappy numbers, but yet find ways to make plays and win when it matters the most? It brings up interesting discussions of who was better Terry Bradshaw or Roger Staubach? Joe Montana or John Elway? Where does Dan Marino or Jim Kelly fit in (guys who never won the big one)? Yet guys such as Trent Dilfer, or Doug Williams, or Earl Morrall have rings on their fingers. It is an ongoing debate of who is considered the best of the best, the true elite guys. I think to be among consideration for the best of all time, you need to have won multiple titles and had some strong Pro-Bowl/MVP type of seasons in your career.

I am not going to go through and rank the all-time guys. I just wanted to create a list of the guys who had won multiple Super Bowl titles:

Joe Montana (4 Super Bowl wins)
Terry Bradshaw (4 SB wins)
Troy Aikman (3 SB wins)
Tom Brady (3 SB wins)
John Elway (2 Super Bowl wins, 5 total appearances- most all-time)
Bart Starr (2 SB wins, 3 NFL titles prior to Super Bowls being played)
Roger Staubach (2 wins)
Jim Plunkett (2 wins)
Bob Griese (2 wins)
Ben Roethlisberger (2 wins)

10 guys that is it. Everyone is in the H.O.F. except for Plunkett and the 2 active guys Brady and Roethlisberger.

The point I am trying to make with this post is to try to make myself realize the importance of clutchness in big time games and trying to wrap my head around what exactly clutchness entails and how do I put it into the proper historical context. Super Bowl's are not the end all be all of determining who the best is, after all this is a team game. Is Doug Williams better than Dan Marino or Jim Kelly because he won a Super Bowl and they did not? We know the answer to that one. Super Bowl/NFL titles really serve as the tie-breakers, I feel, for determining the "eliteness" of these signal callers. By winning titles, John Elway essentially breaks the tie with Dan Marino whose regular season numbers are fairly similar. It is what is breaking the tie between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. If Manning can get that 2nd ring than we can bring the discussion back up again but as long as Brady sits at 3 and Manning at 1 than that discussion has ended in my mind. It has taken me awhile to realize that because by most accounts Peyton Manning may be the best regular season QB we have seen this side of Marino. I have had to rely on stats to tell the stories for me when I evaluate different players with whom I barely remember seeing play. You can do that more so in baseball but not in football where there is far more teamwork involved and so many different components involved as well. Which makes the case for Ben Roethlisberger intriguing to me.

Approximately two weeks ago I posted an article ranking my top 5 QB's in 2010-2011 NFL. To review I had 1)Brady, 2)P. Manning, 3)Brees, 4)Roethlisberger, 5)Phil Rivers with Aaron Rodgers being the next man up.

This Super Bowl I feel will help set the stage for how we will be evaluating this next generation of QB's and may be setting up future battles in the years to come as Manning and Brady continue on towards the 2nd half of their careers. The list you see above will change by 48 hours from now, I am nearly certain of this. Just by appearing in this game, I think Roethlisberger moves up to 3 and depending on how he plays may move into the top 2. Rodgers, who is sitting at 6 on my list, will move into the top 5. He is not there already because I did not want to prematurely crown him as so many have done already. Look, he has got all the tools you want (strong arm, leadership, mobility in and out of the pocket), he just lacks experience. If he plays well he will slide ahead of Brees for sure, dropping Brees down to 5 if both guys play well. Rodgers may even jump Roethlisberger as well. He will not jump Manning, simply because of the experience and the consistency factor. If Rodgers can duplicate this kind of season again in 2011 than I will bring up again for discussion. That is what is at stake for the two signal callers leading two of the most proud and respected franchises in the NFL. The Steelers will be going for their unprecedented 7th Super Bowl title, the Packers will be going for their 4th. Super Bowls stand the test of time. People remember certain games by how well the men in them played. Super Bowl III is known for Joe Namath, Bradshaw is known for all 4 of those titles he won. The performances in these games overshadows, and rightfully so, the regular season performances of these guys.

To steal from the Big 10 (now the Big 12) this is where "Legends" and "Leaders" are born.

Steelers 27 Packers 24

MB

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

What I am really longing for....

When most of your daily life centers around the sports world it can be hard when there is not enough of it to wet your appetite. I know, I know this is Super Bowl week. The culmination of the professional football season. There should be plenty for me "eat" and "digest" this week. Call me crazy but I am really not that interested. Do not get me wrong I will still watch the game. Maybe it is because my favorite team is not in the biggest game of the year that causes my lack of interest. Two weeks in between games is a long time, especially when their is a lack of quality sports to watch on the tube.

College basketball, count me as one who cannot get interested in watching guys jack up three's that they miss 70% of the time and just the slower level of play. As the quality of players has risen over the last few years, the gap between the entertainment value and the quality of the play that I witness between the NBA and college basketball is as wide as it has been awhile. The only way that I watch college basketball right now is if there is a player that is going to be drafted in the lottery and even then I do not watch an entire game. I think forcing guys to wait a year after they graduate high school to enter the draft has benefited the college game and also hurt it at the same time. On the positive side we have seen players like Kevin Durant (Texas) and Michael Beasley (Kansas St.) elevate their teams and made the college game more entertaining. It was must see TV. The last game that I really watched for college basketball was the Memphis-Kansas game a few years back at the end of the 2008 season. That game featured future pros such as Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, just to name a few. That game was really good, two teams full of talent that played together as teams. Maybe those kinds of teams exist today, but my interest has really waned. As I mentioned previously the "one and done" rule as it applies to college basketball has also had negative consequences in my mind. You have coaches such as John Calipari who gets a lot of these one and done guys and basically has a different roster every year. If players stay more than two years they probably are no better than an 8th or 9th man on an NBA team. Their talent is limited even though they may be a smart kid, who works hard, their basketball skill level is usually pretty low. Players such as Tim Duncan are few and far between. Personally I think that college basketball should use a similar rule to how baseball does it. Either the kid can go right out of high school to the professionals or he has to wait three years to enter the draft. Two years out of high school might be the better option. Blake Griffin would be a good example of this. He was not quite ready to go to the NBA out of high school, but two years really helped him out.I am just not a big fan of how the college game has turned, academics are really being shunned at and laughed in the face at with this one and done rule for college basketball. It puts coaches in a conundrum. Do they sign these really talented one and done players and risk high turnover and low APR (academic progress rate) that can affect that their job status? Do they sign the lesser talented players and wait for them to develop over a two to three period, risking wins and losses?

What else is there to occupy the sports fan time over these upcoming days/weeks/months? The X-games? Please give me a break. It is bad enough that this stuff was made into an olympic sport. The NBA is good right now, the regular season has quality games on nearly every night but if ESPN or TNT  does not have the right game on TV you are stuck with The World Series of Poker or a college basketball game that features two mediocre teams. Football will be over with a few short days and that will be a good thing for me. My mind and my television is over-saturated with football. I get that it is popular and there is a reason that it is exposed so much to the masses. There is a limit to the amount that I can absorb and I am at that limit. The build-up to the Super Bowl is nearly always bigger than the game itself. This is one of if not the most watched sporting events out there and there are many reasons that this  is so. The commercials, the game itself, the drama that unfolds during the game, and the fact this is the most popular game here in the States just adds to at all. Every year around this time, especially the last couple of years, this burnout feeling occurs inside me. I will long for football again during the heat of summer, but right now it is time for a break. The NBA is gradually building steam towards its conclusion in a few months but with their being so many games left to play, there is just too much of the unknown and still too many games that do not matter. I would call myself a casual NASCAR fan but that only holds my interest for so long.

So what is a guy to do with his time? Watch the History channel. There are usually some good things on that channel. AMC had a triple feature of awesomeness this past weekend, El Dorado, True Grit, and Jeremiah Johnson. That was an enjoyable way to spend the afternoon, but it was fleeting and only lasted for a day. I could devote myself to my studies (and I do for the most part). I am in graduate school pursuing a degree in Sport and Fitness Management. Who wants to spend their whole day buried in books or research. There is value in that but not something you want to completely monopolize your time. I long for the days of warm weather and nice cool, evening summer breezes after a long hot day. I long for the days where shorts and sandals are the clothing du jour for the day. I long for the boys of summer. You know that song. You know what I long for and it is my favorite sport. The nation's former National Past time. I know I am rare breed in Generation Y when i say:

Pitchers and Catchers report in 12 days....

MB