It's been awhile since I last posted. I figured I would give a preview of my favorite baseball team, the Atlanta Braves and take a look at their offense while previewing the pitching in tomorrow's post. Since I really have no interest talking about college basketball (sorry cannot get over the poor quality of play, the NBA (hometown team taking a nose dive toward irrelevancy in a hurry), or the NFL (wake me up when the season starts-tired of all this labor talk-it is not interesting at all and it just ticks me off on both ends).
Projected Lineup
1. Martin Prado LF (27)- 2010 Numbers: .307-15-66-.809 (OPS)
This guy represents everything that I love about baseball. Hard-working, consistent (hit .307 on the button last 2 seasons), gives great effort every night, and is a notorious gym rat. He always makes the correct baseball play whether out on the field or in the batter's box. Selfless attitude, willing to shift positions without complaining and he does whatever he can to help the club win. He is probably more suited to bat 2nd in this lineup and maybe he will before the season ends but he does not hurt you in the leadoff spot. He is in the prime of his career and I expect similar results from him for this season.
2. Nate McClouth CF (29)-2010 Numbers: .190-6-24-.620
He was godawful last year. No doubt about that. I was initially hesitant of the Braves decision to put him in this spot in the lineup but after careful thought and consideration this move could do wonders to his confidence and is a good spot to be in the lineup hitting between Prado and Chipper. He is a career .252 hitter so there is reason to believe he should do A LOT better this season. If the Braves can get a career average season from him than that will be a huge plus for the club this season. I expect him to bounce back and hit around .260 and to double his HR total in 2011 with around 12 for the season.
3. Chipper Jones 3B (39)-2010 Numbers: .265-10-46-.806-95 gms
This future Hall of Famer is probably in his last season of his tremendous career. He is still a huge presence in this lineup despite his failing health and still can give you a clutch at bat when you need him to. He still has a great eye at the plate as evidenced by his .381 on base percentage which is excellent considering his .265 batting average. Do not expect him to play more than about 120 games or so, but as long as he can avoid long DL stints he can be effective. Projected numbers- .275-14-62 w/ a high on base percentage.
4. Brian McCann (27)- 2010 Numbers: .269-21-77-.828
Another player in the prime of his career. He is among the top 3-4 guys in his position in the majors. His power numbers have been pretty consistent, usually around 20 HR a year. I expect him to hit a career high in HR this year with 25 this season. I think his average will rise and be right around his career average of .289.
5. Dan Uggla (31)- 2010 Numbers: .287-33-105-.877
Big acquisition for the Braves to put in the middle of their lineup. His defense is questionable but they did not acquire him for that part of his game. They got him because he has hit 154 HR in his 5 seasons in the majors. That is 31 a year. His batting average should return to the mean and be around .260 or so. Another given is that he will strike out a ton and that he will probably struggle in April before busting out in May. Some Braves fans will be disappointed when he does not hit .320 with 45 HR and a 130 RBI and they will have to stay disappointed because he will not hit that well, but he will provide a significant power boost to the lineup and will probably bat cleanup against LHP, which he absolutely crushes.
6. Jason Heyward (21)-2010 Numbers: .277-18-72-.849
Sky is the limit for this young stud. If only he can avoid some of these growing pains that caused him to miss 20 games last year. Would like to see him get into 150 or so this season. I expect his numbers to incrementally get better, meaning the average to rise about 10 points, to add about 5-6 HR and now that he is batting lower in the order he will be in a better position to drive in some runs. He has a tremendous eye at the plate, not just for a young player but for anyone period. His .393 on base percentage was 4th in the NL last season. Right behind guys like Pujols, Votto, and Fielder. Not bad eh.
7. Alex Gonzalez (34)-2010 Numbers: .250-23-88-.741
Sea Bass came over to the Braves in a midseason trade with the Blue Jays last season and he preceded to do what he has always done. Hit around .240, strike out a lot and not hit a lot of homers. Do not get me wrong, he provided some stability after the disappearance of Yunel Escobar, who suddenly forgot how to hit at the ripe old age of 27. He is going to strike out a bunch and hit around .245 and that is fine for a guy hitting this low in the lineup. He does not need to hit any higher than this or the Braves may be in some trouble. This will more than likely be his last season in a Braves uniform. I will be very surprised if he is with the club next season.
8. Freddie Freeman (21)-2010 Numbers-only 24 AB's w/ 1 HR(bomb off of Roy Halladay)
A little bit of an unknown this year for Freddie. This guy will hit, but how well? Probably not as good as Heyward last season. My best guess would say he hits around .270 with about 15 HR's. He'll take some walks and probably strike out some. He will play excellent defense and I am excited to see what he can do for a full season. His minor league numbers show that he can hit (.301 career average). I think he will grow into his power, he is indeed a big fella (6'5 and around 245).
The bench is a little bit of an unknown, as most benches are. David Ross and Eric Hinske are known commodities who provide production when forced into duty. Brooks Conrad will provide some clutch pop off the bench, just do not expect him to do much out in the field. After that its anyones guess who the remaining guys will be. Joe Mather, Diory Hernandez, Brandon Hicks, Matt Young, Ed Lucas anyone?
Tomorrow I will preview the pitching for the club. Until then, hugs and handpounds everyone.
MB
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
Top 5 Rotations for 2011
The stache (would be nice if it matched the color of my hair but that is a story for a different day) has made a temporary return to this writer's face as he transitions towards the warm weather look of clean shavenness.
Enough with all this basketball nonsense. How about some baseball talk? You know how much I like lists and rankings so I figure I would wet the beak with my personal ranking of the starting rotations for the 2011 MLB season. So without further ado.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Roy Oswalt
Cole Hamels
Joe Blanton
The resume:
The reigning National League Cy Young winner. The 2008 American League Cy Young winner. The 2008 World Series MVP. Not to mention Roy Oswalt. A man with a 3.18 career ERA. The lowest among the 5 starters. The top 4 guys all pitched over 200 innings last season and it was not the first time that these guys had done it. The only concern I would have with these guys is their age. The top 3 guys are all over the age of 30 and when you become that age you are always really close to experiencing a significant drop off in production. Halladay is a horse, I expect him to duplicate his numbers from last season but he will turn 34 during the season. You just do not know. On paper this is the best and deepest rotation in the game. This is the strength of this club.
2. Oakland Athletics
Trevor Cahill
Gio Gonzalez
Brett Anderson
Dallas Braden
Rich Harden
The resume:
Had the lowest starters ERA in the majors last year at 3.47. They have youth, which can mean growth and potential. They may not have the flash and glam that other rotations have but the results speak for themselves. Cahill (23) had a 2.97 ERA in 2010, 4th in the AL along with a WHIP(walks + hits/innings) of 1.11 that also placed him 4th in the AL. Gio Gonzalez LHP (25), 3.23 ERA in 2010-200 innings pitched. Brett Anderson LHP (23), 3.57 ERA in 49 career starts. 2.80 ERA in 19 starts last season. Dallas Braden, he of the perfect game last season adds a third lefty to this young rotation that has the potential to lead this team into the postseason.
3. San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Barry Zito
The resume:
The reigning World Series champions were 3rd in the majors last season and 3rd in 2009 in starters ERA. Lincecum- 2x Cy Young Award winner, 3.04 career ERA, 3rd in K's last season. Cain-worried a little about his arm injuries this spring, 3.14 ERA in 2010-3.45 for his career in 170 starts, a perfect number 2 pitcher. Sanchez- 3.07 ERA in 2010, 8th in the NL in K's last season. Bumgarner (21)- 3.00 ERA in 111 IP in his rookie season last season. Barry Zito is not terrible as a 5th starter. I like the youth of these guys, 4 guys in their 20's.
4. Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson
Tommy Hanson
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Brandon Beachy/Mike Minor
The resume:
The Braves are back to being led by their pitching. 6th in starter's ERA in 2010, 1st in 2009 with largely the same crew of guys. Hudson-had his best season as a Brave, pitching his most innings(228.2) since 2003 and also his lowest ERA(2.83) since that season. Hanson(24), career ERA of 3.16 in 55 starts, over 200 IP last season with 173 K's, future staff ace as soon as this season. Lowe-reliable veteran, who will give you 190 IP and an ERA around 4.00, pitched real well down the stretch and in the postseason. Jurrjens (25)-key to the staff, had a dreadful season last year, battling injuries all season long, career ERA of 3.52 in 92 starts, had 2.60 ERA in 2009. Good mixture of youth and veterans on this staff.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Zach Greinke
Yovani Gallardo
Shawn Marcum
Randy Wolf
Chris Narveson
The resume:
It always helps to add a former Cy Young award winner to the top of your rotation in Greinke. Although his rib injury deserves some attention. He's been over 200 IP for the last 3 seasons on one of the worst teams in baseball. Had 242 K's in 229 IP in 2009. He is really good if but a bit odd as a person. Gallardo (25)-3.67 career ERA in 82 career starts, fits in well as a #2. Marcum (29)-had 3.64 ERA in A.L. last season for the Blue Jays, an innings eater who should see him numbers improve against N.L. Central competition. Wolf-durable consistent veteran LHP, career 4.13 ERA, 3.23 ERA in 2009, good fit as a 4 starter. Rotation may not have pedigree that others do, but I like potential. Top 3 guys are in their 20's with two of them coming over from the A.L. where the DH is a factor in some inflated numbers.
Others rotations I like:
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers
Florida Marlins
Debate and enjoy.
MB
Enough with all this basketball nonsense. How about some baseball talk? You know how much I like lists and rankings so I figure I would wet the beak with my personal ranking of the starting rotations for the 2011 MLB season. So without further ado.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Roy Oswalt
Cole Hamels
Joe Blanton
The resume:
The reigning National League Cy Young winner. The 2008 American League Cy Young winner. The 2008 World Series MVP. Not to mention Roy Oswalt. A man with a 3.18 career ERA. The lowest among the 5 starters. The top 4 guys all pitched over 200 innings last season and it was not the first time that these guys had done it. The only concern I would have with these guys is their age. The top 3 guys are all over the age of 30 and when you become that age you are always really close to experiencing a significant drop off in production. Halladay is a horse, I expect him to duplicate his numbers from last season but he will turn 34 during the season. You just do not know. On paper this is the best and deepest rotation in the game. This is the strength of this club.
2. Oakland Athletics
Trevor Cahill
Gio Gonzalez
Brett Anderson
Dallas Braden
Rich Harden
The resume:
Had the lowest starters ERA in the majors last year at 3.47. They have youth, which can mean growth and potential. They may not have the flash and glam that other rotations have but the results speak for themselves. Cahill (23) had a 2.97 ERA in 2010, 4th in the AL along with a WHIP(walks + hits/innings) of 1.11 that also placed him 4th in the AL. Gio Gonzalez LHP (25), 3.23 ERA in 2010-200 innings pitched. Brett Anderson LHP (23), 3.57 ERA in 49 career starts. 2.80 ERA in 19 starts last season. Dallas Braden, he of the perfect game last season adds a third lefty to this young rotation that has the potential to lead this team into the postseason.
3. San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Barry Zito
The resume:
The reigning World Series champions were 3rd in the majors last season and 3rd in 2009 in starters ERA. Lincecum- 2x Cy Young Award winner, 3.04 career ERA, 3rd in K's last season. Cain-worried a little about his arm injuries this spring, 3.14 ERA in 2010-3.45 for his career in 170 starts, a perfect number 2 pitcher. Sanchez- 3.07 ERA in 2010, 8th in the NL in K's last season. Bumgarner (21)- 3.00 ERA in 111 IP in his rookie season last season. Barry Zito is not terrible as a 5th starter. I like the youth of these guys, 4 guys in their 20's.
4. Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson
Tommy Hanson
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Brandon Beachy/Mike Minor
The resume:
The Braves are back to being led by their pitching. 6th in starter's ERA in 2010, 1st in 2009 with largely the same crew of guys. Hudson-had his best season as a Brave, pitching his most innings(228.2) since 2003 and also his lowest ERA(2.83) since that season. Hanson(24), career ERA of 3.16 in 55 starts, over 200 IP last season with 173 K's, future staff ace as soon as this season. Lowe-reliable veteran, who will give you 190 IP and an ERA around 4.00, pitched real well down the stretch and in the postseason. Jurrjens (25)-key to the staff, had a dreadful season last year, battling injuries all season long, career ERA of 3.52 in 92 starts, had 2.60 ERA in 2009. Good mixture of youth and veterans on this staff.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Zach Greinke
Yovani Gallardo
Shawn Marcum
Randy Wolf
Chris Narveson
The resume:
It always helps to add a former Cy Young award winner to the top of your rotation in Greinke. Although his rib injury deserves some attention. He's been over 200 IP for the last 3 seasons on one of the worst teams in baseball. Had 242 K's in 229 IP in 2009. He is really good if but a bit odd as a person. Gallardo (25)-3.67 career ERA in 82 career starts, fits in well as a #2. Marcum (29)-had 3.64 ERA in A.L. last season for the Blue Jays, an innings eater who should see him numbers improve against N.L. Central competition. Wolf-durable consistent veteran LHP, career 4.13 ERA, 3.23 ERA in 2009, good fit as a 4 starter. Rotation may not have pedigree that others do, but I like potential. Top 3 guys are in their 20's with two of them coming over from the A.L. where the DH is a factor in some inflated numbers.
Others rotations I like:
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers
Florida Marlins
Debate and enjoy.
MB
Monday, March 7, 2011
It's Time For A Breakup
You know it when you see it. You buy into something because it is your team and that's what you do. You talk yourself into certain players. You say to yourself, well maybe if this guy is healthy or if he makes the commitment on defense or if he improves his jump shot or if ref gives us more breaks. When you have that many ifs it probably is sign that you are not good enough in the first place. It can be difficult to realize that something you have grown to love and appreciate could be and should be over as you know it to be. When that team has struggled for so long and then finds relative consistency and starts making the playoffs, improving upon their win total year after year. You can talk yourself into the team continuing to improve and continuing to going a little bit further each year in the playoffs. It is easy to do. However, if the ultimate goal of any professional sports franchise is to win a championship (and it should be), regardless of previous successes or not, and that it has become obvious to all of that teams supporters that it just cannot happen. That there are too many teams that are better and too many ifs have to happen for that championship to occur.
Then it is time to pull the plug on the current version of that team and that is the case now for the 2010-2011 Atlanta Hawks. I have heard, and agree with the sentiment, that in the NBA if you win between 40 to about 50 wins a season that you are in purgatory. You are good enough to make the playoffs, maybe make it to the second round of the playoffs, but you just are not good enough to make a run at the Finals. You are stuck with getting draft picks in the 20's and without radical improvement from within you will not win and win big. The 2010-2011 Atlanta Hawks as currently constructed are on pace to win 50 games for the second season in a row. The likely 5th seed come playoff time. That is decent but not good enough. They are in NBA purgatory. In the NBA you need at least two top 10 caliber players or three top 15/20 caliber players with the right supporting cast. You need the studs to make it work.
Let us look at recent NBA Champions.
2010 Lakers-Kobe(top 5), Gasol(top 15), supporting cast Lamar Odom, Artest, Bynum
2009 Lakers-Kobe(top 5), Gasol(top 15), supporting cast Bynum, Odom
2008 Celtics-Garnett(top 5), Pierce (top 15), cast of Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, Perkins
2007 Spurs-Duncan (top 5), cast Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
2006 Heat- Shaq (top 5), Wade (top 10), weak supporting cast
*top 5 means All NBA 1st Team, top 10 All NBA 2nd Team, etc.
Point being all these teams had a top 5 guy and one other guy who was thought of as top 15 caliber player. Joe Johnson has been the best player on the Hawks since he came to Atlanta in 2005. You cannot question that. He averaged close to 40 minutes a game for a solid 4 seasons. He was worn out at the end of the season and I feel that his performance suffered in the playoffs when he ran out of gas. During the regular season, he was never better than a top 15 performer. Making the third team all NBA last season. Good player, but not great. His best basketball, I feel, is behind him. It is slowly becoming Al Horford's team. Again a good player but not great.
The Hawks have 3 guys on the team currently who would be considered top 25/30 caliber players. With Josh Smith being the third guy. Josh Smith, as electrifying as he can be, has never made an All Star team. He has been close a couple of times but never quite good enough to make it on the squad. Excellent defensive player, he can do a lot of things for you on the court, but you still cannot trust him to make the right decision at the right time. You need him on your team but he should never be one of your top options. Unfortunately the Hawks maxed out on that contract to Johnson. Limiting some of the moves they could make to improve the squad. The Hawks recently made a move to acquire Kirk Hinrich for Mike Bibby. An upgrade, but that is not saying much. Bibby was a stiff on defense and his FG percentages and PPG had dropped in each consecutive month this season. Hinrich has brought some intensity to the squad, upgrading the PG on defense and providing more of a spark on the offensive side of the ball. However, the improvement is minimal and will have little impact on the bottom line at the end of the season. Bibby helped the Hawks make the playoffs and established a nice veteran presence on the floor to help mature the young players that Atlanta had. It has been proven over time that veterans win in the playoffs not young teams. This Hawks team is not young and they are not really veteran. Again stuck in a purgatory. Do you wait a couple of years and allow this core group to mature and hope that they can get better while other teams around them fade? Do you add some key pieces here and there, maybe a shot blocking/defensive type center to shift Al to the 4? Will that move alone put this team over the top? Or do you start thinking radically and moving guys like a Josh Smith to try it with a different set of guys? Me, personally I like the last two options, especially the last one. Trade Josh and see what you can get for him.
There is just something about this team that reeks of lack of urgency. It became obvious during the blowout sweep to the Magic last year in the playoffs that something was missing. For a team that had continued to get better every year, they hit a brick wall and hit it in a big way. Something did not look quite right, they gave up and looked content. Or maybe it is that they are good but not good enough. Al Horford and Joe Johnson are nice but you need someone who is better than those guys to contend for a championship. You need a first team All NBA caliber type of player. But where do you find these guys and how do you get them to come to Atlanta? Carmelo would have fit in well here but he wanted to go to NY. Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul would work but I doubt they will come to Atlanta when they are free agents. The latter two could have been drafted by the Hawks 5 years ago, but we decided that Marvin Williams was the better option, but that is a story for another day. Point being it's time for a breakup and hopefully management will realize this and make the proper move accordingly.
MB
Then it is time to pull the plug on the current version of that team and that is the case now for the 2010-2011 Atlanta Hawks. I have heard, and agree with the sentiment, that in the NBA if you win between 40 to about 50 wins a season that you are in purgatory. You are good enough to make the playoffs, maybe make it to the second round of the playoffs, but you just are not good enough to make a run at the Finals. You are stuck with getting draft picks in the 20's and without radical improvement from within you will not win and win big. The 2010-2011 Atlanta Hawks as currently constructed are on pace to win 50 games for the second season in a row. The likely 5th seed come playoff time. That is decent but not good enough. They are in NBA purgatory. In the NBA you need at least two top 10 caliber players or three top 15/20 caliber players with the right supporting cast. You need the studs to make it work.
Let us look at recent NBA Champions.
2010 Lakers-Kobe(top 5), Gasol(top 15), supporting cast Lamar Odom, Artest, Bynum
2009 Lakers-Kobe(top 5), Gasol(top 15), supporting cast Bynum, Odom
2008 Celtics-Garnett(top 5), Pierce (top 15), cast of Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, Perkins
2007 Spurs-Duncan (top 5), cast Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
2006 Heat- Shaq (top 5), Wade (top 10), weak supporting cast
*top 5 means All NBA 1st Team, top 10 All NBA 2nd Team, etc.
Point being all these teams had a top 5 guy and one other guy who was thought of as top 15 caliber player. Joe Johnson has been the best player on the Hawks since he came to Atlanta in 2005. You cannot question that. He averaged close to 40 minutes a game for a solid 4 seasons. He was worn out at the end of the season and I feel that his performance suffered in the playoffs when he ran out of gas. During the regular season, he was never better than a top 15 performer. Making the third team all NBA last season. Good player, but not great. His best basketball, I feel, is behind him. It is slowly becoming Al Horford's team. Again a good player but not great.
The Hawks have 3 guys on the team currently who would be considered top 25/30 caliber players. With Josh Smith being the third guy. Josh Smith, as electrifying as he can be, has never made an All Star team. He has been close a couple of times but never quite good enough to make it on the squad. Excellent defensive player, he can do a lot of things for you on the court, but you still cannot trust him to make the right decision at the right time. You need him on your team but he should never be one of your top options. Unfortunately the Hawks maxed out on that contract to Johnson. Limiting some of the moves they could make to improve the squad. The Hawks recently made a move to acquire Kirk Hinrich for Mike Bibby. An upgrade, but that is not saying much. Bibby was a stiff on defense and his FG percentages and PPG had dropped in each consecutive month this season. Hinrich has brought some intensity to the squad, upgrading the PG on defense and providing more of a spark on the offensive side of the ball. However, the improvement is minimal and will have little impact on the bottom line at the end of the season. Bibby helped the Hawks make the playoffs and established a nice veteran presence on the floor to help mature the young players that Atlanta had. It has been proven over time that veterans win in the playoffs not young teams. This Hawks team is not young and they are not really veteran. Again stuck in a purgatory. Do you wait a couple of years and allow this core group to mature and hope that they can get better while other teams around them fade? Do you add some key pieces here and there, maybe a shot blocking/defensive type center to shift Al to the 4? Will that move alone put this team over the top? Or do you start thinking radically and moving guys like a Josh Smith to try it with a different set of guys? Me, personally I like the last two options, especially the last one. Trade Josh and see what you can get for him.
There is just something about this team that reeks of lack of urgency. It became obvious during the blowout sweep to the Magic last year in the playoffs that something was missing. For a team that had continued to get better every year, they hit a brick wall and hit it in a big way. Something did not look quite right, they gave up and looked content. Or maybe it is that they are good but not good enough. Al Horford and Joe Johnson are nice but you need someone who is better than those guys to contend for a championship. You need a first team All NBA caliber type of player. But where do you find these guys and how do you get them to come to Atlanta? Carmelo would have fit in well here but he wanted to go to NY. Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul would work but I doubt they will come to Atlanta when they are free agents. The latter two could have been drafted by the Hawks 5 years ago, but we decided that Marvin Williams was the better option, but that is a story for another day. Point being it's time for a breakup and hopefully management will realize this and make the proper move accordingly.
MB
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