Friday, August 28, 2009

College Football Preview 2009

At last it is the long awaited College Football Preview for 2009. This will include the predictions for each conference and a top 25 overall for the nation. I will have win projections as well the champions, team on the rise, team on the decline, and sleeper(unexpected success) for this year. So without further ado:

ACC Atlantic
1. Florida State 8-4 (6-2)
2. N.C. State 9-3 (5-3)
3. Wake Forest 8-4 (4-4)
4. Clemson 7-5 (4-4)
5. Boston College 6-6 (3-5)
6. Maryland 6-6 (3-5)
ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech 11-1 (7-1)
2. Georgia Tech 9-3 (6-2)
3. North Carolina 8-4 (4-4)
4. Miami 7-5 (4-4)
5. Virginia 4-8 (2-6)
6. Duke 4-8 (1-7)
Champion: Virginia Tech
Team on the rise: N.C. State
Team on the decline: Clemson
Sleeper: Wake Forest

Anaylsis: Virginia Tech is the favorite by all accounts. They have a strong defense and are the champions of the conference the last 2 years. Big question marks on offense with Tyrod Taylor at QB and the loss of RB Darren Evans for the year. Taylor is the key for this team, if he is good they could be a darkhorse for the national title race if he is not good than they won't even be in the ACC Championship game. Georgia Tech should be a strong challenger in their second year under Paul Johnson. Their offense is really dynamic and should only be better than it was last year. UNC is an interesting squad, Butch Davis has restocked the talent on this team, if they can find some playmakers on offense they could be a sleeper team in this conference. Miami will be better but their record won't reflect it as they face a brutal early season schedule. Virginia and Duke won't be very good. The other division is a lot more muddled and there is no clear favorite. I like FSU because I like Christian Ponder and they have a solid OL for this year. N.C. State probably as the best QB in the conference in Russell Wilson, very accurate with the ball, does not turn it over. Wake is interesting because they have a senior QB and teams with senior QB's tend to do real well. They are well coached like N.C. State and tend to overachieve, but have they reached their ceiling as a program. Its tough to build a program with such a small student population as well as the difficult academic standards. Clemson will underachieve like they do every year. I don't like Dabo as the coach. They have not won anything really in about 20 years. BC and Maryland should bring up the rear. BC just doesnt have any players on offense and no QB to speak of, which is a problem.

Big 12 North
1. Nebraska 8-4 (5-3)
2. Colorado 8-4 (5-3)
3. Kansas 8-4 (4-4)
4. Missouri 6-6 (3-5)
5. Kansas State 6-6 (3-5)
6. Iowa State 2-10 (0-8)
Big 12 South
1. Texas 12-0 (8-0)
2. Oklahoma 10-2 (6-2)
3. Oklahoma State 9-3 (6-2)
4. Texas Tech 9-3 (5-3)
5. Baylor 5-7 (2-6)
6. Texas A&M 4-8 (1-7)
Champion: Texas
Team on the rise: Nebraska
Team on the decline: Missori
Sleeper: Colorado

Analysis: I don't think Texas will go undefeated, but I struggle finding more than 2 teams that have a legit shot at beating them (the 2 Oklahoma schools). There are 3 teams that have a shot at this division and thus the conference crown which will stay in the South. Texas Tech won't step back much from last year. They are a consistent winner and I expect that to continue. They will probably beat somebody they shouldn't and lose to someone they shouldn't. Baylor is intruiging. Art Briles is a good coach and they have a young dynamic QB who could upset some teams. They should contend for a bowl game. A&M is not good and that is a disapointment for a school with this kind of tradition. The North should be pretty competitive with Nebraska returning to prominence under Bo Pelini. Their schedule is tough and 8 wins would be an excellent achievement. I expect Colorado to take a step up this year and seriously challenge for the division, their schedule sets up pretty favorably for 8 wins, if they don't win that many Dan Hawkins may be gone. Kansas has the senior QB and some veteran receivers, but again I do not like how their schedule sets up. Those are the 3 teams that can win the North. Missouri will take a big step back without Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin on offense. K-State is wrestling in mediocrity and Iowa State is just really bad. I don't know how anyone can win there.

Big 11
1. Penn State 10-2 (6-2)
2. Ohio State 9-3 (6-2)
3. Michigan State 9-3 (5-3)
4. Iowa 9-3 (5-3)
5. Illinois 8-4 (5-3)
6. Northwestern 8-4 (4-4)
7. Wisconsin 7-5 (4-4)
8. Minnesota 7-5 (4-4)
9. Michigan 7-5 (3-5)
10. Purdue 3-9 (1-7)
11. Indiana 3-9 (1-7)
Champion: Penn State
Team on the rise:
Team on the decline: Ohio State
Sleeper: Iowa
Analysis: This conference is wide open with 3-4 teams having a legit shot at the top spot. Ohio State lost a lot of people and I just don't think they have the horses this year to get it done. I like Penn State because of their schedule and because of senior QB Daryl Clark. The Nittany Lions seem to have that swagger back and I like them this year. Iowa and Michigan State won't win this conference but will have a say in who does. Iowa will be a team to watch this year. Great offensive line and a veteran QB. The next tier of teams in the Big 11 consists of Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. All are about 6-8 win teams. Illinois has talent on the field but has a questionable head coach. Northwestern is well coached. Wisco is heading in the wrong direction. Michigan is intriguing, Rich Rod won at WVA and is offense produces with the right players in place and they may finally have that. They will be young, but face a difficult schedule this year. A bowl season would be a step in the right direction. Purdue and Indiana are bad.

Big East
1. Pittsburgh 9-3 (6-1)
2. Rutgers 9-3 (4-3)
3. West Virginia 8-4 (4-3)
4. Cincinnati 8-4 (4-3)
5. South Florida 7-5 (4-3)
6. Connecticut 6-6 (4-3)
7. Louisville 5-7 (2-5)
8. Syracuse 2-10 (0-7)
Champion: Pittsburgh
Team on the Rise: Cincinnati
Team on the Decline: West Virginia
Sleeper: Rutgers

Analysis: This conference sucks and all the teams are pretty close together which means their are a bunch of average teams. Somebody has to win and so this year its Pittsburgh time. I don't why but I guess they have the talent,toughness and schedule to grind it out. Rutgers, West Virginia, Cincy, and South Florida could steal it. West Virginia will disapoint because Pat White hid a lot of flaws on this team, most notably poor defense and poor coaching. Syracuse may win more double that total I listed above, but until they do so I can't put them down for more than 2 wins.

Pac-10
1. USC 11-1 (8-1)
2. California 10-2 (7-2)
3. Oregon State 8-4 (5-4)
4. Oregon 7-5 (5-4)
5. UCLA 7-5 (5-4)
6. Stanford 7-5 (5-4)
7. Arizona State 6-6 (4-5)
8. Arizona 6-6 (4-5)
9. Washington 3-9 (2-7)
10. Washington State 0-12 (0-9)
Champion: USC
Team on the rise: UCLA
Team on the decline: Arizona State
Sleeper: Oregon State

Analysis: USC wins again, what a suprise. New QB, overhaul at LB, sam result. They will contend for a National Title appearance and probably lose to Cal if at all. Cal is the main challenger to the crown this year. They have an explosive offense. The rest of the conference is jumbled in the middle except for the two Washington schools, who bring up the rear. I expect to Oregon State to do well this year and finish in the top 3. They are well coached and have playmakers on offense. UCLA is a team on the rise, their defense will be strong and their talent is gradually getting better, I expect them to flourish in 2010. Washington will be better, only because they have no other option but to. They have had teams win in the past, so they can do it again. Washington State will challenge Iowa State and Syracuse, for the worst team in a BCS conference this year.

SEC East
1. Florida 11-1 (7-1)
2. Georgia 9-3 (5-3)
3. Kentucky 7-5 (3-5)
4. South Carolina 5-7 (2-6)
5. Tennessee 6-6 (2-6)
6. Vanderbilt 4-8 (2-6)
SEC West
1. Ole Miss 10-2 (6-2)
2. Alabama 10-2 (6-2)
3. LSU 9-3 (6-2)
4. Auburn 8-4 (4-4)
5. Arkansas 8-4 (4-4)
6. Mississippi State 4-8 (1-7)
Champion: Florida
Team on the rise: Ole Miss
Team on the decline: Tennessee
Sleeper: Arkansas

Analysis: Florida is great, not good, a great team. Everything thats been said about this team is the truth, they are loaded, if they were playing in any other conference they would be undefeated, but since they are in the best conference in the land they will lose 1 game, and it probably will be to LSU on the road. UGA will be good for around 9-10 wins. The defense worries me a little, as well finding some additional playmakers on offense for Joe Cox to throw to. Richard Samuel will be a stud. He is from Cartersville and is built like another SEC bruiser from a few a years ago from the same town (Ronnie Brown of Auburn). Not saying he's as good, but hes built like a horse. He can be physical and can run away from defenders. The rest of the East is pretty average by this conferences standards. I expect Kentucky to lead the way and for Tennessee to not be as good as the hype surrounding them this fall. The west is the best division this year. 5 teams will win 8 games this year (not counting bowl games). Three teams will probably win 10 and I expect Ole Miss to lead the way. Everyone seems to be split between Ole Miss, Bama, and LSU. I lean towards the Rebels because of their QB play, their playmakers on offense, and their front 7, their front 4 is especially nasty and deep. Bama brings in a new QB and has to replace 3 guys on the OL. They are talented and have a strong defense and running game to hold them up this year. As well as Julio Jones at WR. LSU is talented but Les Miles is pretty lucky and his teams play undiscliplined. They are a sleeper potentially for the national title if they get some solid play at QB because they have proven talent at every other part on their team. Arkansas and Auburn will be in the mix as well but I don't expect to see either in Atlanta for the championship game. Solid teams that I feel are on the rise this year and the years to come. Auburn will bounce back from last years disapointment and rely on a strong running game and a strong defense. Arkansas will be explosive on offense but struggle mightily on the defensive side of the ball. Mississippi State won't make it out of the cellar. They would be a bowl team in another conference but not this one.

Top 25
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. Ole Miss
6. Alabama
7. Virginia Tech
8. Oklahoma State
9. LSU
10. Ohio State
11. Penn State
12. Georgia Tech
13. UGA
14. California
15. Oregon
16. Boise State
17. TCU
18. Florida State
19. Utah
20. North Carolina
21. Iowa
22. Notre Dame
23. BYU
24. Nebraska
25. Oregon State

National Title: Florida over Texas
Heisman: Tim Tebow

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