Stats vs. Aesthetics: How do you watch a game?

Baseball-reference.com is an incredible site for baseball junkies like myself. It has every stat of every player who has ever played the game for any stretch of time, including minor leaguers. Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus have similar type-sites that list all sorts of advanced metrics. Every time you visit one of these sites there seems to be a new number to describe a player. It’s great. Gone are the days when the best ways to evaluate a player were with batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. They only tell a small part of the story on a player. Better stats are out there that I have come to embrace as being a greater indicator of a player’s value, on-base percentage, on-base-plus slugging (OPS), OPS +, and WAR are all great indicators of a players value to their team. They aren’t perfect but they are helpful to those of us who like to compare players of today with players from the past.

There are a plethora of other stats that help to complete the picture, as statisticians and baseball talent evaluators continue to look at ways in which to determine player value. Defensive metrics seem to be flawed to a degree and require a large sampling over time. With defense it helps to actually watch the games. Which brings me to the essential point of this post. Baseball has always been a statistically driven game because of its nature as a largely, individualized team sport, if that makes sense. A baseball player’s stats at the end of the year are largely a reflection of their own individual contribution to its team, with the notable exception of RBI’s, but even that has an individualized component. You can look at a player’s numbers at the end of the year and determine, for the most part, how their season turned out. But, you still need to watch the game to appreciate the value of a player. Stats can show that you had a lot of assists from the outfield. But does that mean you have an accurate arm, an accurate and strong arm? Or do teams test you because they haven’t seen you enough? Stats cannot show how smooth a player looks when he turns the double play or how he glides to cover balls in the outfield. It does not tell you how sharp a guy’s curveball is, or how filthy that sinker that he throws. You have to watch the game to truly appreciate what each player brings to the field and how they contribute to the teams’ success. Sometimes I fall into the trap of just looking at what certain numbers say and not the aesthetic things.

There are just so many stats out there and you don’t get to see every player, so if you are into comparing players on different teams, sometimes stats are the best way to go. When it comes to players who played long before I was born, stats are the only way to go cause obviously I never got to see them play. This is where the stories from players who played the game back then are so important to help quantify how good some of the players of the past were. Stories from relatives and old family friends are a key ingredient to baseball’s past, sharing stories of a time where baseball was the America’s past time. One day I hope to be able to share stories of how good players such as Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, or Derek Jeter to future generations who never got to see them play. Numbers cannot show you how sweet the swing of Adrian Gonzalez is, or the opposite field power that Ryan Howard shows. It doesn’t tell you how Ichiro can throw a guy out at 3^rd from the warning track in right field. Stats don’t tell you how good the 2-seam fastball of Greg Maddux was or how intimidating Randy Johnson was out on the mound. J.D. Drew is a classic example of a guy who has good peripheral numbers, solid OPS, decent batting average, but he’s just missing the “it” factor.

When I first listen to a song, I am not trying to break down the lyrics and find out what the meaning of the song is. I am listening to the rhythm and the beats and then I check the lyrics afterwards if I am still interested. I don’t try and do both. This concept applies to my sports viewing where sometimes I consume stats too much and don’t appreciate the feel and the pure athletic beauty that the game provides to us. I have found the most enjoyment when I forego the statistical approach and just watch for the sake of watching. Watch for that beauty because stats don’t say at all. 

Long and Winding Road Part III

The light creeped into the room. The alarm clock had been pulled the night before in order to charge up a phone. The A/C in the room was doing its job but making a lot of noise doing so. At this point the time was unknown, by me at least. I had no idea if it was 9am or 2 in the afternoon. After a quick check of the phone realized it was 10am, or approximately that time. My mind was still foggy from the night before. 6 hours of not-so-quality sleep does not put me in the most pleasant of moods as I am sure this would apply to just about anyone. So minimal words were spoken, a few grunts were made, and a couple of showers were taken. A knock came on the door, not shortly after the 2nd shower had been completed. Our two companions from the other room were there to greet with their fair share of what I will call "mimics" of LMC legends from the past.

It was beach day. Our stomachs were growling so we headed out the door and piled into my little Corolla. Which is barely big enough for 3 adults, but 5 were crammed in there on our way to Folly Beach. After a few missed turns, a trip to Wal-Mart, and trying to find somewhere to park (this is important to remember for the future). As you would expect on a major holiday weekend, it was pretty crowded. We found a "clutch" food and drink stand and scarfed down our first meal of the day. The time was around 11:30am but I cannot be sure of this as I had no time piece available and really was not concerning myself with time on this trip. After this, we gathered our gear and located a spot on the sand. Lotions were applied and a trip into the water was in hand. Although I should note that one particular person, I won't mention his name, had to wait a few extra minutes to make sure his lotion had set in before he headed into the water. A soul of caution this lad was and is. We proceeded over the next few hours to hang out in the water, which was a perfect temperature, take a stroll across the beach doing some babe watching if you will, drink some canned beverages and just hang out enjoying each others company. After awhile some dark clouds began to gather and we headed on back to the car. I discovered a yellow ticket on my windshield. A parking violation. Unbeknownst to us all, you are not allowed to have any part of your vehicle hanging out on the road. I had pulled over on a side street and had left 2 wheels on the road. A road that couldn't have been well traveled, but thats neither here nor there. The fine was paid and we were on our way back to North Charleston to clean up and ready ourselves for the nights events.

After everyone had showered and napped (our room of 3 for that matter). Our stomachs growling let us know that it was time to eat again. After a long wait we piled into this lime green cab. And when I say piled in I mean literally we had 4 guys crammed into a made for 3 seat back seat (probably illegal). We had to pull over to a nearby gas station as our cab had smoke coming from its engine. Not sketchy in the least bit. So after about 20 minutes or so we were on our way. The cab driver decided it was a good idea to try and talk on his phone, place a dispatch and try to put one hand on the steering wheel, all the while driving 70 mph on the interstate. Not sketchy at all. We arrived in Charleston and walked over to Wild Wings to settle in for dinner.  The place we visited the night before that took it awhile for people to recall that it was indeed the last place we had been. After heartily shoving down some quality greasy food. We decided to walk it off for about an hour through the various streets in the city. After about an hour of continuous walking we settled down at last nights drinking establishment. A cover band was playing, finishing up their set as another band was set to arrive not shortly after. The mood had continued to be positive as we settled in at a table close to where the band was playing. It was a small bar. Minimal lighting with some candles set up at all the tables for effect. It was a cool place. I liked it and I think everyone else did as well as we settled in for what would be about a 5 hour stay. The second played a lot of quality songs, bouncing around various genres and decades of music. They played a fair amount from the 90's as I recall. I remember singing along to plenty but my memory fails me at this moment to the specifics of the songs. I remember being happily content and satisfied, other than having to wait 30 minutes in between drinks. The laughs were plentiful that evening. As were the trips to the bathroom (where the handle stopped working and thus wouldn't flush), long-legged scantily clad females, and the amount of numbers seen on the tabs at the end of the night. After awhile our table would rarely see all 5 people at it once as people be up for various reasons, getting fresh air, going to the bathroom, whatever the case may be. The band continued to play up until the last call. It was noted by several compatriots that some of the speciality beverages were light on substance, if you know what I mean. I stuck with my traditional drink. For those that know me you know what this is.

After last call was made and we ventured out onto the streets. The easy decision was made to hop into an ever-growing line outside the pizza joint that "Texas" and I had ventured to the night before. The line was a little longer, but moved pretty quickly as customers shuffled past us, pizza in hand. Somehow it ended up that a big round of applause was to be given to anyone who came out with a whole pizza box. This was done several times as pizza flowed out of this local establishment. After awhile the food was consumed and out we went back into the streets in search of a cab. It was widely agreed upon that riding in the lime taxi was not going to be an option. "Fedora" made some calls but to no avail. Turns out a majority of taxi cab services in Charleston are private and have to be called in ahead of time. We did this but were not picked up initially. The call was placed again and we were told that it would be 15 minutes. It was probably 2:45 am at this point. We had been waiting a solid 30 minutes for a cab to come pick us up. Not shortly after the last call was placed, we hitched a ride with this taxi cab van along with 2 others with whom we had no association with and needed a ride to a different hotel in downtown Charleston. After they were dropped off, we headed on back. A 2nd and final night completed.

When it came down to it. The decision to go to Charleston, SC was not really a difficult one. We all put aside any travel difficulty and costs and made this trip happen. It was a memorable trip filled with many laughs and new memories that will last a long time. You do not know when you will have the opportunity to do things such as this so you take advantage of them when you can. You try your darnedest to organize things like this and make every effort to get there. You forego the animosity and you become care free.

This was a successful RALLY and one I hope to duplicate soon.

MB

Long and Winding Road Part II

I was the first to arrive. If I had been anxious or stressed out this could have bothered and in the past in probably would have. You see there were 2 rooms reserved in our "lovely" hotel. None of the two were reserved by me as I had to not committed to this trip until about 10 days prior. So I made a call and got a status report. Two of the attendees were a good 2-3 hours out, one of which had a room in his name. The other room reservee was in plane somewhere between Texas and South Carolina not set to arrive until the 6 o'clock hour. Keep in mind it was just past 4. So after taking care of my bladder and finding something to assuage my hunger I began a text in search of the only other guy who was in the Charleston area. A man I had gotten to know over a 3 year period and whom I had not seen since the Fall of 2008 when he graced us with his presence at a cross country race in this very city in which we were about to embark upon. As if by osmosis, the phone began to ring. I waited a few rings as I had just finished purchasing some food. I picked it up as I walked out the door. To make a long story short, he had turned in his rental car earlier that day and had been stuck at the airport since before noon. He needed a ride. I hesitated only slightly as I had just finished a 500 mile drive not but 20 minutes earlier. What else was I going to do? Sit in the hotel lobby to myself for 3 hours. So I hopped in the car again and drove the short distance over to the airport. As drove slowly through the terminal area I pulled over to the side. Thinking that I had found my man. It was not to be so. Just another bearded young fellow with short black hair. I eventually found my guy and we preceded away. The conversation began with pleasantries and just catching up on our current statuses. Reminiscing soon followed and stories began on all the guys that had passed out way over the years we shared together on the LMC campus. If you weren't there at LMC for these people than it will mean little to you, but if you were there even if for a few short months. These people will be etched inside your minds for eternity. Quirky does not even begin to describe the people we encountered while on the mountainous campus. Any story that was retold to the maximum degree and even when you thought you had heard it all. A new plot line (usually not completely true but entirely plausible ones) would be developed and the conversations would continue. Mimicking others for whom we had known and imagining the things that they would say. No one was off limits in this, especially those that were not part of our party of 5.

We arrived back at the hotel. It was 5 o'clock. We meandered over to the hotel lobby and plopped down into a couple of chairs and continued the conversation, making up for lost time. It was said at some point by some body that it was good to see that nobody had really changed that much in 3 years and how that was a good thing. I couldn't have agreed with that more. It is nice to know that how ever much the world changes around you that some of your closest friends are still as you remember them. About an hour and a half had passed when we got the message that "Texas" had arrived in South Carolina and was awaiting a four wheeled vehicle to come pick him up. We confirmed with our North Carolina travelers of their ETA and made the decision to go get "Texas," as they were still a good 30 minutes out. So back to the airport I went. This time the company was doubled with a man we will call "Fedora." As he was sporting a sweet hat of that style that he had purchased while visiting one of our old compadres on the Left Coast. We found our companion and the party had reached 60% attendance. More stories were swapped and the voice mimicking reached new heights as we proceeded back to the hotel. The laughs were coming in more frequent intervals now as I listened and laughed as my 2 passengers battled each other to see who could make the others laugh more. We arrived at the hotel at the exact same time as the North Carolina duo. More voice mimicking occurred and the oneupsmanship of how crazy the mimics could get would only escalate as the night was beginning. It was 7pm.

After the rooms were divided up. We decided to get a bite to eat at a fine local establishment. You know the ones where you order your food and you have it 2 minutes later with halfway cooked cheese and pickles when you say you wanted just cheese on your burger. Yeah that kinda place. The greasy quality of the food started to settled into our stomachs as the reminiscing continued. Greasy food would be a continuous theme over the next 36 hours. We made a stop at a nearby gas station to pick up "supplies." And headed back to the hotel to begin the nights festivities. Every one was in a good mood and ready to party. Some were a little more cautious in nature, but no one was spoiling anyone elses fun. It had been so long since we all had been together. I think we all came to an unspoken agreement to have as much fun as possible and put all current/past issues behind us. The mood was light and festive as the "games" began. After a couple hours and many trips to the bathroom. The decision was made to venture into the city. The wise decision was made to call a cab/van/taxi to come pick us up as it was a good 15 minutes to drive. After a few minutes, a van had arrived and we piled in. The van windows were cracked open, allowing a nice cool breeze to be blown in. I couldn't tell you what time we rolled out onto the streets of Charleston and at this point I couldn't care less. We walked along Meeting St. in search of a place to settle in and have a good time. The first place we stopped at asked for a small cover fee and we quickly turned that down and preceded next door to a place that was free of charge and had some sweet music pouring out onto the street. Easy choice. We strolled in and took a seat at a table not far from where the band was playing and placed our orders with the server. After everyone had placed their orders. "Specialty" drinks were ordered. You know the ones you consume in about 0.3 seconds. Yeah those drinks. The band continued to play. Mixing in some old school stuff that really got me excited and pumped for the evening. After awhile, more rounds were consumed, the trips to the bathroom became more frequent, and more "specialty" drinks were ordered ending with one that would put hair on your chest and tasted a little like animal urine only if animal urine burned like you know what and made your stomach turned inside out. Heck may be thats what animal piss does anyways. Point is, is that it was gross and a good one to end the night on. At this point, details started to become hazy. I remember picking up the bill for my portion of the rounds, that rent in Charleston was $700, and that it was time to move to a different location. So we walked across the street to a place where the other guys had landed. Turns out we ate at this place the next night for dinner. I say turns out because like I said details were hazy on this night at the memory recall was slow to react upon things. After we hung around for what was probably half an hour. "Texas" and I discovered a local pizza joint that was serving massive pizza by the slice as well as whole pizzas if you so desired. I recalled a tip from my dear ole mother from the other night where she told me that after consuming "drinks" that it is a wise idea to put some food in the stomach. I was happy to oblige this, and was well aware of this tip, and stood in line for a few minutes to grab a slice. Side note: what a genius idea placing a pizza parlor right next to all the bars and staying open to all hours of the note to feed the bar patrons as they close down for the evening. I consumed most of the ginormous pepperoni slice as "Fedora" called our cab and we headed back to North Charleston.

As 3 out of our 5 compadres did not get the pizza. They decided that it was a good idea to go to the Waffle House which was just across the street from our hotel. At this point I was probably more tired than anything else as I had been up for about 20 hours or so at this point. I ordered a glass of water as the others waited on and then consumed their food. I, intermittently would put my head down trying desperately to catch some much needed zzz's. After awhile, too long for a fast food type of diner, we strolled back across the street and crawled into our beds. One night complete in Charleston with more in store the following night.

Day 2 in Charleston will be brought to you in a 3rd and final segment as again I have spared no expense on the details of this trip.

Long and Winding Road Part I

The planning stages began months in advance. Location soon to be determined. Eight were invited, five made the journey east. We came from 4 different states (from as far away as Texas and New York), 5 different places in all. Some came by plane while others arrived in cars. The friendships started as far back as 2005 and were developed over time. Some graduated from college while others had chosen different paths to walk in life. All had one thing in common, we were all members of a college cross country team. It was only 4 months in which we all graced the campus of Lees-McRae at the same instance, but something about those 4 months allowed us to meet once again in the low country of South Carolina. In a town that we had all been to before, Charleston. It had been 3 years since we had all last been together. 3 years too long. While we missed the 3 that could not attend. We made the most of out of who had came. We created new memories, shared old stories, and had many laughs and intoxicating liquids for that matter.

The story for me began at 6:50 AM CST as I anxiously beat my alarm by a solid 10 minutes, eagerly awaiting the adventure that was soon upon me. I had been restless for days in anticipation. Things in South Alabama had become quite slow as the temperatures had hovered around the triple digits for a solid 2 months and many residents had left to go "home" for the summer. So I was ready to get out and have some fun even though I knew 500 miles of road lay ahead of me. After a quick shower to alert my senses and a bowl of cherrios I was 88 and out the gate. Approximate departure can be confirmed. 7:20 was the time. A time I had not seen in quite awhile. All but the first 45 minutes or so is interstate driving so that was a big positive heading out so early with less than ideal sleep the night before. I had created a massive playlist of music off of iPod. Over 300 songs to be more precise. Maybe the best collection of road trip songs that I have put together for any trip. I was locked in and ready to go. The music energized me. As nearly every song was belted out and sung along to. The big question heading into this trip was whether to make this a one or two stop trip. A couple of things are factored into this. How hungry I am and how long can I hold "it"? As I got a couple hours into the journey, the decision became 1 stop. This one stop had to be past the halfway mark (250 miles) and had to include both food and fuel. This brought me to a small community just off the shores of Lake Oconee in East Georgia in between Atlanta and Augusta (which is one of the dullest areas in which to drive in).

Traffic had been smooth sailing on I-20. However I-26 was a slightly different story. When I picked it up just east of Columbia we were crawling along for several miles at a pace that snails would find comfortable. Turns out it wasn't a wreck that slowed us down, but 4-5 cars pulled over in a fairly decent sized median looking like items had been lost or something. Eastbound traffic had slowed down to look. A classic maneuver that annoyed the "fill in the blank" out of me. The longer the drive goes the more irritable I become. You have to remember that this was the longest solo drive of my life. A solid 200 more miles than any I had done before. By the time I had reach Columbia, I was sitting close to 6 hours with a good 90 minutes to go. Once that cleared, the road was full with cars traveling well in excess of 80 mph. Eager to get where they were going on this 4th of July weekend, as was I. Our exit was at 209. Traffic came to a halt and 204. A measly 5 miles away. 5 miles that felt like 5 hours probably took over 30 minutes to complete, Excruciating does not even big to describe those last few miles. I pulled off the exit and arrived at our North Charleston hotel. I had been in the car for well over 7 hours and the 500 miles had been draining, but there I was ready to go and settled in.

It was now 4:00 pm EST...

P.S.- After putting a lot of detail into this first part. I have made the executive decision to break this into two parts. With the other one coming shortly to follow.  

A Welcome Return: Realizing your potential

As you may or may not have noticed, this blog has been a little dormant the last 2.5 months. That would probably be due to a little thing I would like to call school. Maybe you've heard of it. It has consumed much of my time as has life in general. In truth I have also been stagnant in terms of coming up with new and creative ideas to post on here. I wanted to do more than just ranking things and analyzing my home town teams. Which I kind of felt like this had become. So I am going to give this a go again and hopefully I can sustain it better this time. I want to take a more theoretical approach to these articles and throw out some thoughts to ponder. Oh, I'll probably still try to throw in some rankings and home town flavor, but I wanted to take a different approach that won't always be tied to sports. I want to craft stories into something meaningful, not just strict analysis of certain things. I want to try and take an outside the box approach to this and see where that takes me. I have never been one who'd you call an outside the box thinker, but I am feeling kind of frisky so we'll see where it takes me.

Here is my thought for the day. This one does revolve around sports but it can also be applied to certain aspects outside of sports I think. As with all things in the sports world this thought revolves around LeBron James. As you have heard, the Miami Heat lost the NBA title last night to the Dallas Mavericks. The Heat were probably the most hated in team sports in nearly 20 years. There were plenty of reasons for this that I won't get into at this time but I wanted to attack the core reason why I and I think many other basketball fans were disappointed in what LeBron has revealed himself to be in the last few years. By joining Wade in Miami, he joined forces with one of his top rivals. Lets stop and think about this. The most talented player to play this game in recent memory said he could not do it by himself and chose instead to team up with a contemporary of his. Someone who does not have near the ability that he does but has that inner drive that makes him great. What hurt the most as a basketball fan is that we deep down knew this was Wade's team and that LeBron would have to be the Robin to Wade's Batman. We knew it. We just couldn't believe we were seeing this. Whatever "this" means. The player LeBron is often compared to Michael Jordan would never do this. Maybe LeBron has been miscast his whole career as a guy whose supposed to put up sick scoring numbers and be a Jordan-type player. When in reality he is more like some combination of Scottie Pippen-Magic Johnson. Which isn't the worst thing to be. Being a ball hawk defender who guards the other teams best player regardless of position, a guy who can average a triple double every night if he wanted to is not a bad alternative to have, but I don't know if LeBron has the "smarts" to make this transformation a permanent one. He really should've developed a low post game by now instead of working on a jump shot. Which at best is unreliable. He would be an unstoppable force if he committed to the low post more than once or twice a game. Where he can use his 270 lb. frame to dominate anyone who tries to guard him. There is no reason that Jason Kidd should be able to shut him down. I think it was pretty telling that Dallas consistently put their best perimeter defender on Wade. They know what we've all come to realize. Wade is the best player on that team and he shouldn't be, but he is.

A basketball fan has got to feel cheated that LeBron took the easy way out and joined a team with Wade when he should have tried to go somewhere else (Knicks? Bulls?) to try to take on Wade and the Heat with a new supporting cast. He is wasting his basketball potential and we feel cheated. He could be so much better and that's what bothers people like me. I, as a sports fan, want to see every player reach their full potential, whatever that is. I know LeBron has the ability and that is what is frustrating. You know that guys like Kobe, Wade, Jordan, Magic, Bird pretty much maximized what they could do on the court. I don't know that we will get there with LeBron. I don't know that we should expect it either. He might not have it in him. Look, he may end up winning a title in his future, but who will be the alpha dog on those teams? If its him I don't think that team can win a title with his current, but undeveloped skill test. I want to see him reach his full potential because having elite athletes and players at the top of their game makes this game better.

I was talking with a friend the other night and we came up what it means to be a fan of a particular sport. We both agreed that if there is a team that you support than that is your first priority. You want to see them do well, bottom line there. Second priority as a sport fan and first if you do not have a team you support is that you want to see players reach their max potential. It makes the game better that way. Look I want to see Albert Pujols put up his typically historic numbers, he has so far established himself as one of the best hitters of all time, this cannot be doubted. Go look them up.

I want to see special things. That's a primary reason for turning on the TV and watching sports. You want to be entertained but I think you also want to see something special. It does not come around often and when it does you try to cherish it because you know its a rare occurrence. I said this concept of wanting to realize full potential can be applied to sports but also to things outside of sports. I want everyone, including myself, to realize this because it just makes everything in this world better. So think about that and let me know what you think.

MB

Atlanta Braves Preview: The Lineup

It's been awhile since I last posted. I figured I would give a preview of my favorite baseball team, the Atlanta Braves and take a look at their offense while previewing the pitching in tomorrow's post. Since I really have no interest talking about college basketball (sorry cannot get over the poor quality of play, the NBA (hometown team taking a nose dive toward irrelevancy in a hurry), or the NFL (wake me up when the season starts-tired of all this labor talk-it is not interesting at all and it just ticks me off on both ends).

Projected Lineup
1. Martin Prado LF (27)- 2010 Numbers: .307-15-66-.809 (OPS)
This guy represents everything that I love about baseball. Hard-working, consistent (hit .307 on the button last 2 seasons), gives great effort every night, and is a notorious gym rat. He always makes the correct baseball play whether out on the field or in the batter's box. Selfless attitude, willing to shift positions without complaining and he does whatever he can to help the club win. He is probably more suited to bat 2nd in this lineup and maybe he will before the season ends but he does not hurt you in the leadoff spot. He is in the prime of his career and I expect similar results from him for this season.

2. Nate McClouth CF (29)-2010 Numbers: .190-6-24-.620
He was godawful last year. No doubt about that. I was initially hesitant of the Braves decision to put him in this spot in the lineup but after careful thought and consideration this move could do wonders to his confidence and is a good spot to be in the lineup hitting between Prado and Chipper. He is a career .252 hitter so there is reason to believe he should do A LOT better this season. If the Braves can get a career average season from him than that will be a huge plus for the club this season. I expect him to bounce back and hit around .260 and to double his HR total in 2011 with around 12 for the season.

3. Chipper Jones 3B (39)-2010 Numbers: .265-10-46-.806-95 gms
This future Hall of Famer is probably in his last season of his tremendous career. He is still a huge presence in this lineup despite his failing health and still can give you a clutch at bat when you need him to. He still has a great eye at the plate as evidenced by his .381 on base percentage which is excellent considering his .265 batting average. Do not expect him to play more than about 120 games or so, but as long as he can avoid long DL stints he can be effective. Projected numbers- .275-14-62 w/ a high on base percentage.

4. Brian McCann (27)- 2010 Numbers: .269-21-77-.828
Another player in the prime of his career. He is among the top 3-4 guys in his position in the majors. His power numbers have been pretty consistent, usually around 20 HR a year. I expect him to hit a career high in HR this year with 25 this season. I think his average will rise and be right around his career average of .289.

5. Dan Uggla (31)- 2010 Numbers: .287-33-105-.877
Big acquisition for the Braves to put in the middle of their lineup. His defense is questionable but they did not acquire him for that part of his game. They got him because he has hit 154 HR in his 5 seasons in the majors. That is 31 a year. His batting average should return to the mean and be around .260 or so. Another given is that he will strike out a ton and that he will probably struggle in April before busting out in May. Some Braves fans will be disappointed when he does not hit .320 with 45 HR and a 130 RBI and they will have to stay disappointed because he will not hit that well, but he will provide a significant power boost to the lineup and will probably bat cleanup against LHP, which he absolutely crushes.

6. Jason Heyward (21)-2010 Numbers: .277-18-72-.849
Sky is the limit for this young stud. If only he can avoid some of these growing pains that caused him to miss 20 games last year. Would like to see him get into 150 or so this season. I expect his numbers to incrementally get better, meaning the average to rise about 10 points, to add about 5-6 HR and now that he is batting lower in the order he will be in a better position to drive in some runs. He has a tremendous eye at the plate, not just for a young player but for anyone period. His .393 on base percentage was 4th in the NL last season. Right behind guys like Pujols, Votto, and Fielder. Not bad eh.

7. Alex Gonzalez (34)-2010 Numbers: .250-23-88-.741
Sea Bass came over to the Braves in a midseason trade with the Blue Jays last season and he preceded to do what he has always done. Hit around .240, strike out a lot and not hit a lot of homers. Do not get me wrong, he provided some stability after the disappearance of Yunel Escobar, who suddenly forgot how to hit at the ripe old age of 27. He is going to strike out a bunch and hit around .245 and that is fine for a guy hitting this low in the lineup. He does not need to hit any higher than this or the Braves may be in some trouble. This will more than likely be his last season in a Braves uniform. I will be very surprised if he is with the club next season.

8. Freddie Freeman (21)-2010 Numbers-only 24 AB's w/ 1 HR(bomb off of Roy Halladay)
A little bit of an unknown this year for Freddie. This guy will hit, but how well? Probably not as good as Heyward last season. My best guess would say he hits around .270 with about 15 HR's. He'll take some walks and probably strike out some. He will play excellent defense and I am excited to see what he can do for a full season. His minor league numbers show that he can hit (.301 career average). I think he will grow into his power, he is indeed a big fella (6'5 and around 245).

The bench is a little bit of an unknown, as most benches are. David Ross and Eric Hinske are known commodities who provide production when forced into duty. Brooks Conrad will provide some clutch pop off the bench, just do not expect him to do much out in the field. After that its anyones guess who the remaining guys will be. Joe Mather, Diory Hernandez, Brandon Hicks, Matt Young, Ed Lucas anyone?

Tomorrow I will preview the pitching for the club. Until then, hugs and handpounds everyone.

MB

Top 5 Rotations for 2011

The stache (would be nice if it matched the color of my hair but that is a story for a different day) has made a temporary return to this writer's face as he transitions towards the warm weather look of clean shavenness.

Enough with all this basketball nonsense. How about some baseball talk? You know how much I like lists and rankings so I figure I would wet the beak with my personal ranking of the starting rotations for the 2011 MLB season. So without further ado.

1. Philadelphia Phillies
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Roy Oswalt
Cole Hamels
Joe Blanton

The resume:
The reigning National League Cy Young winner. The 2008 American League Cy Young winner. The 2008 World Series MVP. Not to mention Roy Oswalt. A man with a 3.18 career ERA. The lowest among the 5 starters. The top 4 guys all pitched over 200 innings last season and it was not the first time that these guys had done it. The only concern I would have with these guys is their age. The top 3 guys are all over the age of 30 and when you become that age you are always really close to experiencing a significant drop off in production. Halladay is a horse, I expect him to duplicate his numbers from last season but he will turn 34 during the season. You just do not know. On paper this is the best and deepest rotation in the game. This is the strength of this club.

2. Oakland Athletics
Trevor Cahill
Gio Gonzalez
Brett Anderson
Dallas Braden
Rich Harden

The resume:
Had the lowest starters ERA in the majors last year at 3.47. They have youth, which can mean growth and potential. They may not have the flash and glam that other rotations have but the results speak for themselves. Cahill (23) had a 2.97 ERA in 2010, 4th in the AL along with a WHIP(walks + hits/innings) of 1.11 that also placed him 4th in the AL. Gio Gonzalez LHP (25), 3.23 ERA in 2010-200 innings pitched. Brett Anderson LHP (23), 3.57 ERA in 49 career starts. 2.80 ERA in 19 starts last season. Dallas Braden, he of the perfect game last season adds a third lefty to this young rotation that has the potential to lead this team into the postseason.

3. San Francisco Giants
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Barry Zito

The resume:
The reigning World Series champions were 3rd in the majors last season and 3rd in 2009 in starters ERA. Lincecum- 2x Cy Young Award winner, 3.04 career ERA, 3rd in K's last season. Cain-worried a little about his arm injuries this spring, 3.14 ERA in 2010-3.45 for his career in 170 starts, a perfect number 2 pitcher. Sanchez- 3.07 ERA in 2010, 8th in the NL in K's last season. Bumgarner (21)- 3.00 ERA in 111 IP in his rookie season last season. Barry Zito is not terrible as a 5th starter. I like the youth of these guys, 4 guys in their 20's.

4. Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson
Tommy Hanson
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Brandon Beachy/Mike Minor

The resume:
The Braves are back to being led by their pitching. 6th in starter's ERA in 2010, 1st in 2009 with largely the same crew of guys. Hudson-had his best season as a Brave, pitching his most innings(228.2) since 2003 and also his lowest ERA(2.83) since that season. Hanson(24), career ERA of 3.16 in 55 starts, over 200 IP last season with 173 K's, future staff ace as soon as this season. Lowe-reliable veteran, who will give you 190 IP and an ERA around 4.00, pitched real well down the stretch and in the postseason. Jurrjens (25)-key to the staff, had a dreadful season last year, battling injuries all season long, career ERA of 3.52 in 92 starts, had 2.60 ERA in 2009. Good mixture of youth and veterans on this staff.

5. Milwaukee Brewers
Zach Greinke
Yovani Gallardo
Shawn Marcum
Randy Wolf
Chris Narveson

The resume:
It always helps to add a former Cy Young award winner to the top of your rotation in Greinke. Although his rib injury deserves some attention. He's been over 200 IP for the last 3 seasons on one of the worst teams in baseball. Had 242 K's in 229 IP in 2009. He is really good if but a bit odd as a person. Gallardo (25)-3.67 career ERA in 82 career starts, fits in well as a #2. Marcum (29)-had 3.64 ERA in A.L. last season for the Blue Jays, an innings eater who should see him numbers improve against N.L. Central competition. Wolf-durable consistent veteran LHP, career 4.13 ERA, 3.23 ERA in 2009, good fit as a 4 starter. Rotation may not have pedigree that others do, but I like potential. Top 3 guys are in their 20's with two of them coming over from the A.L. where the DH is a factor in some inflated numbers.

Others rotations I like:
Chicago White Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers
Florida Marlins

Debate and enjoy.

MB
 

It's Time For A Breakup

You know it when you see it. You buy into something because it is your team and that's what you do. You talk yourself into certain players. You say to yourself, well maybe if this guy is healthy or if he makes the commitment on defense or if he improves his jump shot or if ref gives us more breaks. When you have that many ifs it probably is sign that you are not good enough in the first place. It can be difficult to realize that something you have grown to love and appreciate could be and should be over as you know it to be. When that team has struggled for so long and then finds relative consistency and starts making the playoffs, improving upon their win total year after year. You can talk yourself into the team continuing to improve and continuing to going a little bit further each year in the playoffs. It is easy to do. However, if the ultimate goal of any professional sports franchise is to win a championship (and it should be), regardless of previous successes or not, and that it has become obvious to all of that teams supporters that it just cannot happen. That there are too many teams that are better and too many ifs have to happen for that championship to occur.

Then it is time to pull the plug on the current version of that team and that is the case now for the 2010-2011 Atlanta Hawks. I have heard, and agree with the sentiment, that in the NBA if you win between 40 to about 50 wins a season that you are in purgatory. You are good enough to make the playoffs, maybe make it to the second round of the playoffs, but you just are not good enough to make a run at the Finals. You are stuck with getting draft picks in the 20's and without radical improvement from within you will not win and win big. The 2010-2011 Atlanta Hawks as currently constructed are on pace to win 50 games for the second season in a row. The likely 5th seed come playoff time. That is decent but not good enough. They are in NBA purgatory. In the NBA you need at least two top 10 caliber players or three top 15/20 caliber players with the right supporting cast. You need the studs to make it work.

Let us look at recent NBA Champions.
2010 Lakers-Kobe(top 5), Gasol(top 15), supporting cast Lamar Odom, Artest, Bynum
2009 Lakers-Kobe(top 5), Gasol(top 15), supporting cast Bynum, Odom
2008 Celtics-Garnett(top 5), Pierce (top 15), cast of Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, Perkins
2007 Spurs-Duncan (top 5), cast Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
2006 Heat- Shaq (top 5), Wade (top 10), weak supporting cast
*top 5 means All NBA 1st Team, top 10 All NBA 2nd Team, etc.

Point being all these teams had a top 5 guy and one other guy who was thought of as top 15 caliber player. Joe Johnson has been the best player on the Hawks since he came to Atlanta in 2005. You cannot question that. He averaged close to 40 minutes a game for a solid 4 seasons. He was worn out at the end of the season and I feel that his performance suffered in the playoffs when he ran out of gas. During the regular season, he was never better than a top 15 performer. Making the third team all NBA last season. Good player, but not great. His best basketball, I feel, is behind him. It is slowly becoming Al Horford's team. Again a good player but not great.

The Hawks have 3 guys on the team currently who would be considered top 25/30 caliber players. With Josh Smith being the third guy. Josh Smith, as electrifying as he can be, has never made an All Star team. He has been close a couple of times but never quite good enough to make it on the squad. Excellent defensive player, he can do a lot of things for you on the court, but you still cannot trust him to make the right decision at the right time. You need him on your team but he should never be one of your top options. Unfortunately the Hawks maxed out on that contract to Johnson. Limiting some of the moves they could make to improve the squad. The Hawks recently made a move to acquire Kirk Hinrich for Mike Bibby. An upgrade, but that is not saying much. Bibby was a stiff on defense and his FG percentages and PPG had dropped in each consecutive month this season. Hinrich has brought some intensity to the squad, upgrading the PG on defense and providing more of a spark on the offensive side of the ball. However, the improvement is minimal and will have little impact on the bottom line at the end of the season. Bibby helped the Hawks make the playoffs and established a nice veteran presence on the floor to help mature the young players that Atlanta had. It has been proven over time that veterans win in the playoffs not young teams. This Hawks team is not young and they are not really veteran. Again stuck in a purgatory. Do you wait a couple of years and allow this core group to mature and hope that they can get better while other teams around them fade? Do you add some key pieces here and there, maybe a shot blocking/defensive type center to shift Al to the 4? Will that move alone put this team over the top? Or do you start thinking radically and moving guys like a Josh Smith to try it with a different set of guys? Me, personally I like the last two options, especially the last one. Trade Josh and see what you can get for him.

There is just something about this team that reeks of lack of urgency. It became obvious during the blowout sweep to the Magic last year in the playoffs that something was missing. For a team that had continued to get better every year, they hit a brick wall and hit it in a big way. Something did not look quite right, they gave up and looked content. Or maybe it is that they are good but not good enough. Al Horford and Joe Johnson are nice but you need someone who is better than those guys to contend for a championship. You need a first team All NBA caliber type of player. But where do you find these guys and how do you get them to come to Atlanta? Carmelo would have fit in well here but he wanted to go to NY. Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul would work but I doubt they will come to Atlanta when they are free agents. The latter two could have been drafted by the Hawks 5 years ago, but we decided that Marvin Williams was the better option, but that is a story for another day. Point being it's time for a breakup and hopefully management will realize this and make the proper move accordingly.

MB
  

Its About That Time

So it has occurred to me that I promised some baseball talk a week or two back and I have failed to live up to that promise. If you are a current resident of the south than you know all too well the spring-like weather that we have had recently. This type of weather (mid 70's) cannot help but remind me of being at the ballpark. It just smells of baseball right now. I have been slowly digesting and gathering information for the upcoming season. Reading up on relevant articles and looking through the lineups and pitching rotations of all the teams trying to figure out who is going to do what for 2011. Trying to figure out who the breakout players are going to be, who the top players at each position are and who has a chance to put his name on the map. Trying to figure out which players are on the declines of their career and can no longer be regarded in the same light that they did not such a long time ago. These are the things I think about daily. With advanced metrics becoming even more a part of the overall analysis, well that just adds another wrinkle of how to accurately look at a player. I cannot watch every game so I have to rely on stats to do some of the work for me. Things such as WAR, OPS +, ERA +, have new and significant meaning to me as these are excellent tools for evaluation of players. RBI's while important do not hold the same relevance to me as they once did. You may be a great run producer, but if no one is on base in front of you than you will not have as much an opportunity to drive in those runs as someone on a better team does. I am also aware of the dynamic of paralysis by analysis. Sometimes you have to see a player in person or on TV to appreciate his value.

2010 was the year of the pitcher, with numerous no-hitters (6 total) and 2 perfect games thrown. It also was the year of the young pitcher. Felix Hernandez, currently 24 years old, won the Cy Young last year and deservingly so I think. He, and Zach Grienke before him, represent a changing of the guard in terms of young pitchers and because they won the award on very bad teams with low win totals. Hernandez won 13 games last year, a few years ago he probably would not have sniffed the top 5 of the list. However, he was so dominant in the other areas that the voters realized this and did not hold it against him that he pitched on a team that scored so few runs. He had an ERA of 2.27 and had 13 wins, that is a nearly impossible feat. Some other young pitchers that I am looking towards establishing themselves as household names are guys like David Price, last year was his breakout year-this year I look for him to continue on that trend of true eliteness. Josh Johnson of the Marlins, second in the majors in ERA, had to be shut down the last few weeks of the season last year, but I expect this hoss to lead a potential playoff sleeper this season. Other guys would be Tommy Hanson of the Braves, who at 24 has shown the moxie to become an ace of the staff in the not to distant future. Ubaldo Jimenez has the stuff to dominate, I think he can continue to do that as he looks to establish more consistency from start to finish this season. The Giants studs of Lincecum (who is already a household name), Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner are expected to keep the Giants in the title hunt for the foreseeable future. Their Bay Area counterparts, the Oakland Athletics, have some young studs worth keeping an eye this season, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, just to name two. Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, two young lefties who are starting to emerge as top of the rotation guys. The Reds Johnny Cueto and any of the guys that Tampa Bay puts behind Price are candidates to emerge this season.

I am sure there are plenty of names that I forgot, but the point is is that I think pitching is here to stay to dominate over these next few years, and that is a good thing to me. I love watching well pitched games that last around 2 hours. As much as like baseball, I do not want to have to consistently sit through 3.5 hour games filled with guys who cannot throw it over the plate. There is just something about a well pitched game that gets my juices flowing. I grew up in Atlanta during their reign of division titles so I appreciate the value that good pitching provides. My hometown team the Braves have gotten back to that way of operation. They have a solid four of Hanson, Tim Hudson, Derrick Lowe, and Jair Jurrjens to lead the way in 2011, but there are several potential young studs on the near horizon. Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlan (when he comes back from Tommy John, he was one of the top guys for the Bravos before he went down), plus guys who have not yet made it to the show, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino. I like what I hear about these guys and look forward to seeing how it all will shake out over the next year or two. So that is one of the many things that I am looking forward to this season.

To steal a line from Mr. Fogerty:
I am born again there is new grass on the field.

Let's play ball!

MB

P.S.-too early to make any predictions for the season, have to see if any signifanct players get injured, etc. (i. e. Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals)

Top 10 NBA Players for 2010-2011

I have not posted in awhile, been pre-occupied with various things such as school, my Dad's 50th birthday party, and school some more. In light of the recent Carmelo Anthony trade to the Knicks (finally we can get on to focusing in on the stretch run towards the postseason), I have decided to formulate another list of rankings, which I love doing because of the debate that it creates. I am not going to do a breakdown of the trade, you can read that most anywhere else today. My brief take is that any time you can acquire a top level player you have to do it. The supplemental parts can be filled in time and this sets the Knicks up better in the long-term not as much this year. My list will be of the top 10 current players in the NBA today. I will be looking at factors such as postseason success, winning, regular season success,  and how much value they add to their teams. Recent success will also be heavily considered as well.

So without further ado, my top 10 NBA players for the 2010-2011 season.

1. Kobe Bryant (age 32)- L.A. Lakers
Comments: 15 year in the league, still among the top scorers in the league. Has 5 championships, including the last 2. He still prone to selfishness but his teams are usually on top at the end. Phil Jackson gets a lot of credit for his molding of Kobe, much like he did with Jordan. He has logged a lot of minutes over his career including some deep playoff runs so we will see how his body holds up over these next few years.

2. Dwayne Wade (29)- Miami Heat
He gets the edge over his teammate because of his postseason success and because he got LeBron to come to him, not the other way around. He may have peaked statistically a couple of seasons ago, but still puts up around 25 ppg. He is a 7 time All-Star and has a Finals MVP on his resume where he was spectacular. He is such a tenacious player on offense, who is best skill is driving towards the basket and making those difficult shots, which leaves him vulnerable to injury. With LBJ now in town this should only help Wade as it lessens the offensive burden on him. Only flaw is his penchant for shooting too many 3's of which he shoots a low percentage (below 30%), other than that he is a really good player.

3. LeBron James (26)-Miami Heat
The best athlete this league has ever seen. 6-8 270 lbs and has the speed and power combination that is just not seen in this world. He is also the best regular season player on this list which should count for something. Appeared in 1 NBA Finals and lost to the Spurs. He should really just drive every time he gets the ball and not worry about shooting so many outside jumpers. If he wanted to commit to sitting down in the low block then he could really complete his game. He has gotten better on the defensive side of the ball and can lock down elite players on the wings. He is such an intriguing figure. It will be interesting to see how his career evolves with Wade in Miami. Can he be the man? Or will it be LeBron for 3 quarters and Wade taking over in the 4th quarter. We'll see. It will be exciting to watch.

4. Kevin Durant  (22)-Oklahoma City Thunder
A pure scorer. An elastic man version of Tracy McGrady only better. He has limited playoff experience, only 1-7game series against the Lakers. Figure on his team continuing to progress through the rounds in the playoffs with the emergence of Russell Westbrook as a more than capable sidekick. The leading scorer in the league the last 2 seasons. He is a great teammate who is teammates seem to get along well with each other which helps fuel their winning ways. He is a guy who you want to pull for because of all the things he represents. Not flashy, humble, and hungry for wins.

5. Dwight Howard (25)- Orlando Magic
Reigning two time Defensive P.O.Y. 5 time All-Star, his teams win a lot of games. He has made 1 appearance in the Finals and another appearance in the conference finals. His teams have won over 50 games the past 3 seasons and are on pace to do so this season. He covers up for his team's defensive mistakes. He is averaging a career high in ppg this season at 22.8 and he continues to be a force on the boards averaging nearly 14 a game for the past 4 seasons. He is a liability down the stretch in games because of his poor FT shooting.

6. Carmelo Anthony (26)-New York Knicks
A pure, elite scorer who comes by his points pretty easily. A four-time All Star his teams have appeared in the playoffs every single season that he has been in the league, but have only advanced past the first round once. He should do well in D'Antoni's system in NY.

7. Deron Williams (26)-Utah Jazz
He tentatively holds the title of the best all around PG in a league that is full of quality ones. He is averaging a career high in ppg at 21.3 and is averaging right around 10 dimes a game. He is a decent outside shooter at 35% a game on 3's. His teams have been in the playoffs the last 4 seasons and all but 1 saw his team advance past the first round. A lot of credit should go to Jerry Sloan for the success of this team and I do not like how that situation ended with Sloan resigning a couple of weeks ago but with that being said, this is a dynamic PG and the tops in the league for now.

8. Dirk Nowitzki (32)-Dallas Mavericks
He just keeps plugging along in now his 13th season in the league. His teams always win and as a model of consistency he has averaged between 21.8 and 26.6 ppg every year since the 2000-2001 season. Prior to this season and excluding his rookie season the most games he had missed in a season was 6. He is a 38% career 3 point shooter. He won a MVP and has appeared in 10 All Star games. From 2000 on the fewest games his team has won in a season is 50.  Again consistent excellence here. Probably would be best served as an elite number 2 option on a team, not quite an elite player but pretty damned close.

9. Derrick Rose (22)-Chicago Bulls
He has made the jump this season and is a strong candidate for MVP this season. He has gotten better every season that he has been in the league. He has worked diligently to improve his outside shooting, jumping all the way up to 35% on 3pt shots from 26 and 22% shooting his first 2 seasons in the league. Thus his ppg is at a career high of 24.9 a game, up 4 a game from last season. He has led a banged up team this year to the 3rd best record in the East. He has been dynamite in his brief playoff experiences.

10. Chris Paul (25)- New Orleans Hornets
A floor general. Some say very similar to Isaiah Thomas. Has led the league in assists and steals twice. Leads the league in steals this season. He can really shoot. 47.3% for his career, including 36.4% from 3.  His last 2 seasons he has shot over 40% from 3. He makes his teammates better which is why he ranks where he does on this list. His health, especially his knees are a big concern going forward. How will he hold up? When he plays his teams win. When he does not play, they do not win. That to me is value.

Honorable Mentions- Pau Gasol, Amare Stoudimire, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook

Feel free to disagree, I am sure you do.

MB

A New Passion?

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Football Jadedness

First things first, it was a good game on Sunday, not great but good. It was competitive, but filled with flaws. Most noticeably the 3 turnovers by Pittsburgh and the dropped passes by the Packers receivers. The Packers deserved to win, they played better, they made minimal mistakes, and rode a hot streak towards the end of the season (more on this in a minute). If Roethlisberger had been able to connect with Mike Wallace on that deep pass that he overthrew than we may be singing a different tune.

The highlight for me (or the low light if you want to call it that and I think most people would say that it was) was the dreadful halftime performance by the Black Eyed Peas. Visually it looked pretty cool, the neon dancers on the field, the bands outfits were kind of cool looking but that was about it. They lacked energy to me and it looked like they were trying to do too much. The dancing with the singing did not work for me. Half of the songs they did were not even theirs. The dance Usher did was pretty cool as was Slash on the guitar, but Fergie's singing to "November Rain" was just horrendus. I understand what the NFL was trying to do trying to appeal to a younger audience, but to me the classic rock genre of music worked and they put on great shows. The Who, Bruce Springsteen, and Tom Petty were good enough in my mind. There is a way to make this work so that it is interesting and entertaining. The Black Eyed Peas are solid on the CD's in the studio but their live performance was lacking. I think it reflects upon the poor choices available with modern popular music. The "underground" stuff that I listen to is fantastic but not a lot of people know who these bands are even if they would put on a great show. It seems that when pop music is at its worst is when the "other" stuff is really rocking and rolling. Just my two cents on that whole thing. 

I do not know about some of you but I am ready for football to be done with for awhile. I referenced this in an earlier blog about my longing for baseball season to arrive (pitchers and catchers are one week away). Football is not favorite sport, it is a close second to baseball for me (which I know is rare in today's 21st century of fast-paced, non-stop, constant movement of the world). One of the growing problems I have with football, primarily the NFL, is Roger Goodell. I wish more people in the media would call him out on this 18 game schedule crap. He says that this is what the fans want. I think he misconstrued the answers he receives from the fans. Fans do not want to pay full price for exhibition games as a part of purchasing season tickets. So Goodell assumes they do not want to pay for the exhibition games so let us just add two more regular season games. Yeah that makes sense. I really do not think there are enough injuries in pro football, the game is not violent enough, yeah lets add two games because we are not making enough money. For the uninitiated that is sarcasm to its highest degree. Did he watch the Super Bowl? Charles Woodson knocked out of the game, Sam Shields injured, Emmanuel Sanders injured. Let us add two more games because that will definitely enhance the product on the field. Come on man! How stupid does he think the fans are? All of this non-sense about how much they care about the players' health, the emphasis on concussions, blah, blah, blah, blah. Cut the crap! We have reached a saturation point with the level of play and how many games can be played with the level of the athletes that we have in today's game. If the owner's are looking for more revenue than maybe you can drop the exhibition games and add some playoff teams (I disapprove of adding more playoff teams, more on this in a minute).

Twelve playoff teams is the maximum amount that I could stand. Let me preface this next set of sentences with this, I have nothing against the Green Bay Packers, but they were a 6 seed that got hot the last few weeks of the season. They barely beat Chicago the last week of the season to get in. They were 10-6, which is a real solid record. They were a good team, should have had a better record than 10-6. I just do not like how it turns out that basically the regular season prior to December does not really matter that much. As long you stay around .500 you have a shot if you can get hot at the end. Arizona a couple of years ago. They were 9-7. I repeat they were 9-7. Is that worthy of an appearance in a championship game? Kurt Warner and that offense got hot at the right time and made it to the Super Bowl. Taking it back a little further the first championship for Roethlisberger. They were a 6th seed. What I am getting at, is no more playoff teams. The NFL is turning into the NBA where the regular season has minimal significance. They have 16 playoff spots for 30 teams. Lets just give everybody a trophy so no one's feelings get hurt. My generation of kids grew up with everyone getting trophies. We are spoiled because of acts like this and a lot of us are soft. When people in support of these big playoffs for college football starting running their mouth. All I can do is scream at the top of my lungs, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! College football has the most meaningful regular season, so do not change it. Why should the 8th best team or the 16th best team have a shot at the championship. It is not right for those at the top who have earned it by playing well in the regular season. Ideally college football could determine the course of championship on a year to year basis. If there are two dominant teams that are undefeated, we do not need a playoff. If there are 4 deserving teams than we can have a plus one system.

Sorry for the rambling, had to get all of that off my chest.

MB

P.S.- New updated QB rankings
1. Brady
2. Manning (by default, BR wins he is here)
3. Rodgers (resume incomplete, another great season and he is at 2, outplayed BR)
4. Roethlisberger (post-season clutchness way overrated upon further review)
5. Brees (could rise again with less int's next season)

Legends and Leaders; Impact of the Super Bowl on All-Time Greatness

In browsing through online media coverage of this year's Super Bowl, I stumbled along something that caught my eye. Those that know me pretty well, know my fondness for creating lists and rankings things. On ESPN's site they had one of these Sports Nations polls where you could vote upon who you thought were the best Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks of all-time. Sign me up for that one. Well of course I spent the next 90 minutes researching about the QB's with whom's statistics I was unfamiliar with. Names such as Bart Star, Len Dawson, Joe Namath, Terry Bradshaw, and Bob Griese, just to name a few. What really struck my eye was the low percentage that some of these guys completed passes at and how some QB's had even thrown more interceptions in their career than TD's and yet were first ballot Hall of Famer's and multiple Super Bowl winners.

Some particular names that were interesting to look at were Bradshaw (51.9% completions, 212 TD's-210 Int. for the career) and yet he won 4 Super Bowls and was a first ballot Hall of Famer. Another interesting name of note whose statistics did not match up to the legendary status to which he is revered is Joe Namath (50.1%, 173 TD's-220 Int.), but got into the H.O.F. on his 3rd try. There were others who had "poor" stats but managed to win Super Bowls and eventually get elected to the Hall of Fame. These kind of things make sports fun and so intriguing. What is it that these guys do to put up crappy numbers, but yet find ways to make plays and win when it matters the most? It brings up interesting discussions of who was better Terry Bradshaw or Roger Staubach? Joe Montana or John Elway? Where does Dan Marino or Jim Kelly fit in (guys who never won the big one)? Yet guys such as Trent Dilfer, or Doug Williams, or Earl Morrall have rings on their fingers. It is an ongoing debate of who is considered the best of the best, the true elite guys. I think to be among consideration for the best of all time, you need to have won multiple titles and had some strong Pro-Bowl/MVP type of seasons in your career.

I am not going to go through and rank the all-time guys. I just wanted to create a list of the guys who had won multiple Super Bowl titles:

Joe Montana (4 Super Bowl wins)
Terry Bradshaw (4 SB wins)
Troy Aikman (3 SB wins)
Tom Brady (3 SB wins)
John Elway (2 Super Bowl wins, 5 total appearances- most all-time)
Bart Starr (2 SB wins, 3 NFL titles prior to Super Bowls being played)
Roger Staubach (2 wins)
Jim Plunkett (2 wins)
Bob Griese (2 wins)
Ben Roethlisberger (2 wins)

10 guys that is it. Everyone is in the H.O.F. except for Plunkett and the 2 active guys Brady and Roethlisberger.

The point I am trying to make with this post is to try to make myself realize the importance of clutchness in big time games and trying to wrap my head around what exactly clutchness entails and how do I put it into the proper historical context. Super Bowl's are not the end all be all of determining who the best is, after all this is a team game. Is Doug Williams better than Dan Marino or Jim Kelly because he won a Super Bowl and they did not? We know the answer to that one. Super Bowl/NFL titles really serve as the tie-breakers, I feel, for determining the "eliteness" of these signal callers. By winning titles, John Elway essentially breaks the tie with Dan Marino whose regular season numbers are fairly similar. It is what is breaking the tie between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. If Manning can get that 2nd ring than we can bring the discussion back up again but as long as Brady sits at 3 and Manning at 1 than that discussion has ended in my mind. It has taken me awhile to realize that because by most accounts Peyton Manning may be the best regular season QB we have seen this side of Marino. I have had to rely on stats to tell the stories for me when I evaluate different players with whom I barely remember seeing play. You can do that more so in baseball but not in football where there is far more teamwork involved and so many different components involved as well. Which makes the case for Ben Roethlisberger intriguing to me.

Approximately two weeks ago I posted an article ranking my top 5 QB's in 2010-2011 NFL. To review I had 1)Brady, 2)P. Manning, 3)Brees, 4)Roethlisberger, 5)Phil Rivers with Aaron Rodgers being the next man up.

This Super Bowl I feel will help set the stage for how we will be evaluating this next generation of QB's and may be setting up future battles in the years to come as Manning and Brady continue on towards the 2nd half of their careers. The list you see above will change by 48 hours from now, I am nearly certain of this. Just by appearing in this game, I think Roethlisberger moves up to 3 and depending on how he plays may move into the top 2. Rodgers, who is sitting at 6 on my list, will move into the top 5. He is not there already because I did not want to prematurely crown him as so many have done already. Look, he has got all the tools you want (strong arm, leadership, mobility in and out of the pocket), he just lacks experience. If he plays well he will slide ahead of Brees for sure, dropping Brees down to 5 if both guys play well. Rodgers may even jump Roethlisberger as well. He will not jump Manning, simply because of the experience and the consistency factor. If Rodgers can duplicate this kind of season again in 2011 than I will bring up again for discussion. That is what is at stake for the two signal callers leading two of the most proud and respected franchises in the NFL. The Steelers will be going for their unprecedented 7th Super Bowl title, the Packers will be going for their 4th. Super Bowls stand the test of time. People remember certain games by how well the men in them played. Super Bowl III is known for Joe Namath, Bradshaw is known for all 4 of those titles he won. The performances in these games overshadows, and rightfully so, the regular season performances of these guys.

To steal from the Big 10 (now the Big 12) this is where "Legends" and "Leaders" are born.

Steelers 27 Packers 24

MB

What I am really longing for....

When most of your daily life centers around the sports world it can be hard when there is not enough of it to wet your appetite. I know, I know this is Super Bowl week. The culmination of the professional football season. There should be plenty for me "eat" and "digest" this week. Call me crazy but I am really not that interested. Do not get me wrong I will still watch the game. Maybe it is because my favorite team is not in the biggest game of the year that causes my lack of interest. Two weeks in between games is a long time, especially when their is a lack of quality sports to watch on the tube.

College basketball, count me as one who cannot get interested in watching guys jack up three's that they miss 70% of the time and just the slower level of play. As the quality of players has risen over the last few years, the gap between the entertainment value and the quality of the play that I witness between the NBA and college basketball is as wide as it has been awhile. The only way that I watch college basketball right now is if there is a player that is going to be drafted in the lottery and even then I do not watch an entire game. I think forcing guys to wait a year after they graduate high school to enter the draft has benefited the college game and also hurt it at the same time. On the positive side we have seen players like Kevin Durant (Texas) and Michael Beasley (Kansas St.) elevate their teams and made the college game more entertaining. It was must see TV. The last game that I really watched for college basketball was the Memphis-Kansas game a few years back at the end of the 2008 season. That game featured future pros such as Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, just to name a few. That game was really good, two teams full of talent that played together as teams. Maybe those kinds of teams exist today, but my interest has really waned. As I mentioned previously the "one and done" rule as it applies to college basketball has also had negative consequences in my mind. You have coaches such as John Calipari who gets a lot of these one and done guys and basically has a different roster every year. If players stay more than two years they probably are no better than an 8th or 9th man on an NBA team. Their talent is limited even though they may be a smart kid, who works hard, their basketball skill level is usually pretty low. Players such as Tim Duncan are few and far between. Personally I think that college basketball should use a similar rule to how baseball does it. Either the kid can go right out of high school to the professionals or he has to wait three years to enter the draft. Two years out of high school might be the better option. Blake Griffin would be a good example of this. He was not quite ready to go to the NBA out of high school, but two years really helped him out.I am just not a big fan of how the college game has turned, academics are really being shunned at and laughed in the face at with this one and done rule for college basketball. It puts coaches in a conundrum. Do they sign these really talented one and done players and risk high turnover and low APR (academic progress rate) that can affect that their job status? Do they sign the lesser talented players and wait for them to develop over a two to three period, risking wins and losses?

What else is there to occupy the sports fan time over these upcoming days/weeks/months? The X-games? Please give me a break. It is bad enough that this stuff was made into an olympic sport. The NBA is good right now, the regular season has quality games on nearly every night but if ESPN or TNT  does not have the right game on TV you are stuck with The World Series of Poker or a college basketball game that features two mediocre teams. Football will be over with a few short days and that will be a good thing for me. My mind and my television is over-saturated with football. I get that it is popular and there is a reason that it is exposed so much to the masses. There is a limit to the amount that I can absorb and I am at that limit. The build-up to the Super Bowl is nearly always bigger than the game itself. This is one of if not the most watched sporting events out there and there are many reasons that this  is so. The commercials, the game itself, the drama that unfolds during the game, and the fact this is the most popular game here in the States just adds to at all. Every year around this time, especially the last couple of years, this burnout feeling occurs inside me. I will long for football again during the heat of summer, but right now it is time for a break. The NBA is gradually building steam towards its conclusion in a few months but with their being so many games left to play, there is just too much of the unknown and still too many games that do not matter. I would call myself a casual NASCAR fan but that only holds my interest for so long.

So what is a guy to do with his time? Watch the History channel. There are usually some good things on that channel. AMC had a triple feature of awesomeness this past weekend, El Dorado, True Grit, and Jeremiah Johnson. That was an enjoyable way to spend the afternoon, but it was fleeting and only lasted for a day. I could devote myself to my studies (and I do for the most part). I am in graduate school pursuing a degree in Sport and Fitness Management. Who wants to spend their whole day buried in books or research. There is value in that but not something you want to completely monopolize your time. I long for the days of warm weather and nice cool, evening summer breezes after a long hot day. I long for the days where shorts and sandals are the clothing du jour for the day. I long for the boys of summer. You know that song. You know what I long for and it is my favorite sport. The nation's former National Past time. I know I am rare breed in Generation Y when i say:

Pitchers and Catchers report in 12 days....

MB

A quaint little town in North Mississippi

I came to Oxford, MS with unbearable anticipation and excitement and left with my ringing and my mouth grinning. I am not going to run through the entire set-list for my virgin Drive-By-Truckers show but will just give my overall thoughts on the show itself, the vibe from the crowd, and the vibe I got from Oxford itself (also a virgin voyage to this quaint little town).

The Futurebirds gave the crowd in Oxford a nice little 45 minute warm-up beginning around the 9 o'clock hour. They were young guys, not much older than myself and my companion on this trip, Justin Haynes. One guy sported a flannel shirt, a banjo, and had a spectacular beard that was a cross between Garth Hudson from The Band and Billy Gibbons from ZZ Top. I could not stop staring at it the whole time. The bassist bared a striking resemblance to Adam Morrison, the basketball player more known for his time at Gonzaga than anything he did in the pro's, albeit not quite as tall. The other members looked pretty ordinary. The band interchanged a lot with different guys taking turns on the drums, guitars, and singing lead vocals for certain songs. All in all a good warm-up act for the featured show of the night.

The Futurebirds

Drive-By-Truckers came out a little after ten o'clock a solid 25 minutes after the Futurebirds had left the stage. Plenty of time for those pouring down the alcohol to get riled up into a tizzy, which would reflect upon the behavior of some members as the show wound on. They began with "Ray's Automatic Weapon," a Patterson Hood song from their latest and soon to be released album Go-Go Boots. A good song but a little slow for the opening show for the set.

They preceded to go into Mike Cooley's "Zip City," off an earlier album that truly kicked the show off. A lot of D.B.T.'s songs tell about the areas in which they grew up in which for most is in North Alabama in the Florence-Muscle Shoals area of the state. Zip City is a little town about 5 minutes from my friend Justin's apartment in Florence. He took me there recently and when you hear the song and know the place that they are singing about it just adds to the total listening experience. The band would essentially go onto alternate with both Patterson Hood and Mike Cooley songs with a couple of Shonna's songs mixed in at appropriate times throughout the two hour plus show. They played 18 songs in the first set and went on to play six more in the encore that I am not sure was deserved due to some behaviors in the crowds that I will touch on shortly.

Mike Cooley

There was one point in the show where Patterson called out two people, who basically were not interested in the show and were instead more interested in each other if that makes any sense. Mike called out these guys who were holding up "Rebel" flags, saying that if he were not in Oxford he would shove those things up their you know what. Since the band has started to become more famous and more well-known throughout the country, it has started to attract some people at their shows that are not truly appreciative of their music. As a fan of any band you want them to get big enough so that they can be the feature attraction at just about any show and still be able to tour across the country, but not too big as to attract fans that are just there to get liquored up and socialize during the show. Some people think that since the band is from the South and that they use three guitars that they are a "Southern Rock" band. While they do have some elements of Southern Rock in them it would not be fair to say that is what the band should be classified as. They are not Lynard Skynard or The Marshall Tucker Band. They are what I would call "Blue Collar Rock." They sing about Southern themes and are very aware of the dualistic nature of being from the South in the 21st century. There are some parts of their Southern roots that they are ashamed of and there are other parts for which the band is appreciative of and that is reflected in the songs that they play. So by those guys in the crowd holding up the Rebel flags I can see why it would set them the wrong way. The only other critique I would have is not from the show itself, which was outstanding, is again from idiot "fans" in the crowd. There was some kid, probably a frat boy, but I could be wrong, basically shouting F-bombs at D.B.T. when they left the stage for the first time. My best guess is that kid probably came in late, had too much to drink, could not handle his liquor, and missed a bunch of the Trucker's set and was pissed off that he did not hear the songs that he wanted to hear. I came to realize that they have so many good songs that it is impossible for us to hear all of the one's that we like. That show could last for another two hours.

Alas, I did not let a few bad apples spoil my trip to Oxford to see the Drive-By-Truckers. It was a fantastic show that leaves my ears ringing nearly 48 hours after it ended.

"With Bon Scott singing 'Let There Be Rock...."

Patterson Hood

MB

P.S.- I love Oxford, not the drive over there which is as dull and depressing as you can can get, but the town itself was very nice. There are plenty of good places to eat, bookstores galore, and oh by the way there is a chance you can see Eli Manning walking down the streets of town, which happened to us over the weekend.

Top 5 NFL QB's

In light of this weekend's results in the NFL, I would like to reveal my own personal QB rankings. Since this is my blog post, I will set my own criteria for how to judge and determine the current state of NFL quarterbacking. I consider factors such as regular season stats, focusing in upon completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio, yards per attempt, and team winning percentage. I also take into consideration the playoff performances of the QB, sometimes the team played well and the quarterback did not, that is taken into consideration. Sometimes the quarterback plays well and the team did not win the game, that will also be taken into consideration. Also the "clutchness" of the QB's will play a factor as well. The last and probably the most important criteria for me is the eye test. Who always seems to be making plays at the right time and whose team is usually one of the last one's standing? I believe you cannot just judge based on one season, you have to look at the whole body of work with greater emphasis being on what has happened recently. That seems fair to me. I cannot place a guy high just because I think he will do well in the future. It has to be results-based rankings for me.

I decided to post about this topic because Super Bowl XLV will have two quarterbacks playing that are both highly regarded and place high in my rankings. The outcome of that game will have a bearing on future rankings, but I figured now was a good time to start the discussion.

I am limiting this to the top 5 Qb's for space purposes and because these are the elite, upper-echelon guys in the league.

Enjoy.

Feel free to disagree because I am sure you will.

() denotes age as of January 24, 2011

1. Tom Brady (33) New England Patriots- drafted in 2000, starter since 2001

Career Win-Loss Record: 111-32 (.776 %)

3 Super Bowl Titles, 4 overall appearances

2 Super Bowl MVP's (7 TD's-1 interception in 4 games)

14-5 Career Playoff Record (8 overall appearances)

95.2 Career Passer Rating, 96.2 and 111 the last 2 seasons

6 Pro Bowls, 3-4000 yard passing seasons

64 TD's, 17 interceptions last 2 seasons

23 4th quarter comebacks for his career

1 NFL MVP

Has not won the big one in 6 years, his last two playoff appearances have seen his team lose its first game. Be interesting to see how the Patriots build around him as he winds down the 2nd half of his career. On top of his game still. Consistency over the long haul the key to this ranking.

2. Peyton Manning (34): Indianapolis Colts, drafted in 1998 started every game of his career

Career Win-Loss: 141-67 (.678 winning percentage)

1 Super Bowl and Super Bowl MVP (2 overall appearances)

9-10 Career Playoff Record (big red flag)

11 playoff appearances in 13 seasons (7 times has lost his first game in the postseason)

11 4000 yard passing seasons

399 TD passes for his career

35 4th quarter comebacks for his career

11 Pro Bowls, 5- 1st team All-Pro

4x NFL MVP (AP)

He may be the best regular season quarterback in league history, this side of Dan Marino. His playoff success, or lack thereof makes him a little difficult to judge historically and from a present day stand point. However, he has been far too good for far too long to be considered much lower than 2nd on my list. His career still has a few good seasons left in it but he will need to win another ring in order to truly be considered one of the all-time greats. The supporting cast needs to improve dramatically around him for this to occur.

3. Drew Brees (32): New Orleans Saints-drafted 2001, starter since 2002

Career Win-Loss Record: 79-58 (.577%)

1 Super Bowl Title and MVP (114 QB Rating)

4-3 Career Playoff Record (4 overall appearances, twice been knocked out in first game)

Last 2 seasons: 67 TD's-33 Int.

5-4,000 yard passing seasons

5 time Pro Bowler

1 time 1st team All-Pro

16 4th quarter comebacks

His career is not as full as the guys listed above him and is more full than the guys listed below him. He has been a top 5 guy for about years now. The Super Bowl win last year really elevated his status around the league from an already impressive regular season resume. He is right with Brady and Manning and if he can continue to lead his team into the playoffs and advance deep into the postseason, he will stay up here if not rise. He plays in one of the toughest divisions in football, the NFC South, which could hurt his future chances for postseason success.

4. Ben Roethlisberger (28): Pittsburgh Steelers, drafted 2004 and has started ever since

Career Win-Loss Record: 69-29 (.704%)

2 Super Bowl Titles (64.1 QB rating, 1 TD, 3 Int in 2 games)

10-2 Career Playoff Record, 5 overall postseason appearances

1 4,000 yard passing season

144 TD's-86 Interceptions for his career with a 63.1% completion rate

19 4th quarter comebacks

1 Pro Bowl

He is the antithesis of Peyton Manning, underwhelming regular season stats with overwhelming postseason numbers, although he has never really put up good numbers in the Super Bowl. Dude just finds ways to win and make plays when he needs to. The career winning percentage and postseason success is not coincidence to this last remark. Depending on how he performs in Super Bowl 45 could determine whether he can move up another spot on this list. Best QB under 30 years old.

5. Phillip Rivers (29) San Diego Chargers, drafted 2004, starter since 2006

Career Win-Loss Record: 55-25 (.688%)

3-4 Playoff Record (4 overall appearances)

97.2 Career Passer Rating, 104.4 and 101.8 last 2 seasons

136 TD to 58 Interceptions for Career

8.8, 8.7- Yards per pass attempt last 2 seasons to lead the league

12 4th quarter comebacks

3 Pro Bowls

What, you were expecting Aaron Rodgers?! Sorry, not yet my friend. I know Rodgers has been in a Super Bowl and Rivers has not. Rivers has been on top of his game the last 2 plus seasons and has had to deal with a team full of knuckleheads and an incompetent coach as well. I cannot fault him for that. His regular seasons stats are tremendous, 2 consecutive seasons with a passer rating over 100, yowsers! He has been in the league a little longer than Rodgers and has thus proven his consistency. That is the reason I chose him over Rodgers. I did not want to be a prisoner of the moment with him. Let's not rush to crown Rodgers as the next great QB and the best postseason QB ever. Let's let this breathe a little and take some time to evaluate them.

Others receiving consideration: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning

Thanks for reading.

MB