Its About That Time

So it has occurred to me that I promised some baseball talk a week or two back and I have failed to live up to that promise. If you are a current resident of the south than you know all too well the spring-like weather that we have had recently. This type of weather (mid 70's) cannot help but remind me of being at the ballpark. It just smells of baseball right now. I have been slowly digesting and gathering information for the upcoming season. Reading up on relevant articles and looking through the lineups and pitching rotations of all the teams trying to figure out who is going to do what for 2011. Trying to figure out who the breakout players are going to be, who the top players at each position are and who has a chance to put his name on the map. Trying to figure out which players are on the declines of their career and can no longer be regarded in the same light that they did not such a long time ago. These are the things I think about daily. With advanced metrics becoming even more a part of the overall analysis, well that just adds another wrinkle of how to accurately look at a player. I cannot watch every game so I have to rely on stats to do some of the work for me. Things such as WAR, OPS +, ERA +, have new and significant meaning to me as these are excellent tools for evaluation of players. RBI's while important do not hold the same relevance to me as they once did. You may be a great run producer, but if no one is on base in front of you than you will not have as much an opportunity to drive in those runs as someone on a better team does. I am also aware of the dynamic of paralysis by analysis. Sometimes you have to see a player in person or on TV to appreciate his value.

2010 was the year of the pitcher, with numerous no-hitters (6 total) and 2 perfect games thrown. It also was the year of the young pitcher. Felix Hernandez, currently 24 years old, won the Cy Young last year and deservingly so I think. He, and Zach Grienke before him, represent a changing of the guard in terms of young pitchers and because they won the award on very bad teams with low win totals. Hernandez won 13 games last year, a few years ago he probably would not have sniffed the top 5 of the list. However, he was so dominant in the other areas that the voters realized this and did not hold it against him that he pitched on a team that scored so few runs. He had an ERA of 2.27 and had 13 wins, that is a nearly impossible feat. Some other young pitchers that I am looking towards establishing themselves as household names are guys like David Price, last year was his breakout year-this year I look for him to continue on that trend of true eliteness. Josh Johnson of the Marlins, second in the majors in ERA, had to be shut down the last few weeks of the season last year, but I expect this hoss to lead a potential playoff sleeper this season. Other guys would be Tommy Hanson of the Braves, who at 24 has shown the moxie to become an ace of the staff in the not to distant future. Ubaldo Jimenez has the stuff to dominate, I think he can continue to do that as he looks to establish more consistency from start to finish this season. The Giants studs of Lincecum (who is already a household name), Matt Cain, Jonathon Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner are expected to keep the Giants in the title hunt for the foreseeable future. Their Bay Area counterparts, the Oakland Athletics, have some young studs worth keeping an eye this season, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, just to name two. Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, two young lefties who are starting to emerge as top of the rotation guys. The Reds Johnny Cueto and any of the guys that Tampa Bay puts behind Price are candidates to emerge this season.

I am sure there are plenty of names that I forgot, but the point is is that I think pitching is here to stay to dominate over these next few years, and that is a good thing to me. I love watching well pitched games that last around 2 hours. As much as like baseball, I do not want to have to consistently sit through 3.5 hour games filled with guys who cannot throw it over the plate. There is just something about a well pitched game that gets my juices flowing. I grew up in Atlanta during their reign of division titles so I appreciate the value that good pitching provides. My hometown team the Braves have gotten back to that way of operation. They have a solid four of Hanson, Tim Hudson, Derrick Lowe, and Jair Jurrjens to lead the way in 2011, but there are several potential young studs on the near horizon. Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlan (when he comes back from Tommy John, he was one of the top guys for the Bravos before he went down), plus guys who have not yet made it to the show, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino. I like what I hear about these guys and look forward to seeing how it all will shake out over the next year or two. So that is one of the many things that I am looking forward to this season.

To steal a line from Mr. Fogerty:
I am born again there is new grass on the field.

Let's play ball!

MB

P.S.-too early to make any predictions for the season, have to see if any signifanct players get injured, etc. (i. e. Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals)